Posted on Tuesday, December 3, 2024

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by Shane Harris

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Republicans have secured a governing trifecta behind President-elect Donald Trump for the second time, with the GOP retaking the Senate and holding the House to win unified control of Washington. But there remain some important matters for the current Congress to decide between now and when Republicans officially take power that could have significant implications for the start of Trump’s second term.

As Congress returns to Washington this week, it faces three major legislative hurdles that must be resolved before the end of the year: defense spending, disaster relief, and government funding.

The first two matters should be relatively easy lifts. Floor votes are expected on the annual National Defense Authorization Act as early as next week with little drama expected, as leaders in both parties are looking for swift passage of the bill.

Disaster relief could be a bit more difficult, but there is urgency from both parties to get a deal done to help communities impacted by Hurricanes Helene and Milton throughout the Southeast. The Biden administration has requested a topline figure of $99 billion. Republicans and Democrats are still haggling over the total cost, but a bipartisan group of senators is pushing for a vote on a standalone disaster relief bill before Christmas.

By far the trickiest issue, particularly for Republicans, is government funding. In September, Congress passed a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through December 20. Without any action by then, the government will go into a shutdown just before Christmas – something leadership in both parties wants to avoid.

While CRs are supposed to be a temporary legislative measure that maintains federal government funding at existing levels to prevent a shutdown while Congress negotiates a new budget, in practice they have become a way for Congress to continually avoid the difficult job of passing a new budget, resulting in ever-increasing government spending.

Nonetheless, in some cases CRs can be politically beneficial – as President-elect Trump and his allies hope one can be now. House Speaker Mike Johnson is pushing for a CR that would punt the funding deadline to next February or March, meaning that Trump would then be able to work with a Republican House and Senate to write and pass a new budget that contains his priorities.

The alternative to this would be the traditional budgetary process, which involves Congress writing and passing 12 entirely new funding bills (usually packaged together as an omnibus bill) in just a few weeks. Even if this were logistically possible, it would mean Republicans would agree to a package negotiated with Democrats that would run through the end of the fiscal year next September, rather than being able to write their own funding bills early next year.

Johnson’s strategy carries with it some significant risks, however – the most notable of which is House Republicans’ slim majority, which could be even smaller than their 222-213 seat edge after the 2022 midterms.

House Republicans have had a difficult time remaining unified throughout the current Congress, hampering their effectiveness at advancing conservative priorities, particularly in divided government. The September CR battle was notably filled with intra-party squabbling among Republicans, as Senate Democrats blocked an initial bill that had attached to it the SAVE Act, a set of election integrity provisions that included mandatory voter ID nationwide. Eventually House Republican leadership agreed to a “clean” CR, which maintained funding at current levels without any additional policy riders like the SAVE Act.

The final vote on the September clean CR in the House was 335-91, with 209 Democrats and 126 Republicans voting in favor. Among the 91 opposing votes, the vast majority were Republicans (89), joined by just two Democrats.

Republicans were also forced to deal with intra-party turmoil over the budget back in 2017, even when they controlled both chambers of Congress and had a significantly larger majority in the House. That struggle ultimately led to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history in 2018.

Forcing a budget battle in early 2025 also complicates President-elect Trump’s other legislative priorities, including his promises to extend his 2017 tax cuts, reduce government spending, and begin deportations of illegal aliens. By passing a CR, the current Congress would be effectively setting a deadline for Trump and the incoming Congress to reach an agreement on several highly contentious funding issues in just a few weeks.

Nonetheless, passing a clean CR appears to be the best option congressional Republicans have available to them, and Democrats currently don’t appear to have the political will to fight for a full funding bill that would run through the remainder of the fiscal year.

The current Republican House and Senate caucuses are thus making a big bet that their incoming majorities can get the job done next year, even with an extremely slim margin in the House.

If that bet pays off, the GOP will be well on its way to helping Trump deliver on his campaign promises. If it does not, Trump’s second term agenda could face a major financial roadblock.

Shane Harris is a writer and political consultant from Southwest Ohio. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.