• The rise of Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al-Qaeda operative and leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), as Syria’s transitional president marks a new and dangerous era in the Syrian conflict and global security.
• The recent capture of Aleppo by HTS forces, followed by a handover ceremony to the Syrian Salvation Government, highlights the group’s ambition to establish control over the region.
• Despite superficial efforts to rebrand as a more moderate group, HTS is characterized by widespread human rights abuses, authoritarian governance and a commitment to establishing an Islamic state.
• The West’s ambivalence toward HTS is a cause for concern, as the group’s consolidation of power could lead to increased extremism and a safe haven for terrorists, further destabilizing the Middle East and Europe.
• The geopolitical fallout from the fall of Assad and the rise of HTS, including the potential for conflict between Turkey and U.S.-backed Kurdish forces and the complications for Russia’s influence in Syria, underscores the need for decisive action to address this threat.

The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has ushered in a new era of uncertainty, not just for the war-torn nation but for the broader Middle East and the West. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the newly appointed transitional president of Syria, is a former al-Qaeda operative and leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group that has long been designated as a terrorist organization by the United Nations, the United States and the European Union. His rise to power marks a dangerous turning point in the Syrian conflict, one that could have far-reaching implications for global security.

The jihadist takeover of Aleppo

The recent capture of Aleppo by HTS forces was a pivotal moment in Syria’s civil war. Once Syria’s largest city and a key economic hub, Aleppo now lies in the hands of a group with deep ties to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). The handover ceremony, where HTS fighters transferred control of the city to the group’s administrative arm, the Syrian Salvation Government, was a carefully choreographed spectacle designed to project an image of stability and governance.

Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the leader of HTS, has sought to rebrand the group as a more moderate alternative to IS or the Taliban. In a 2021 interview with PBS, Jolani argued that HTS’s designation as a terrorist organization was “unfair” and “political.” He has since implemented policies in Idlib, the group’s stronghold, that allow women to forgo the veil and permit smoking—gestures aimed at softening the group’s image.

However, these superficial reforms cannot mask the group’s authoritarian nature. Human rights groups have documented widespread torture and repression in HTS-controlled areas, and Jolani’s promises of inclusivity ring hollow. While HTS has made efforts to reassure minorities in Aleppo, such as Christians and Kurds, their long-term integration into an HTS-led state remains highly questionable.

A dangerous precedent for the West

The West’s ambivalence toward HTS is deeply troubling. While the Assad regime’s brutality made it a pariah, the rise of a jihadist-led government in Syria poses an even greater threat to regional stability and global security. The United States, Britain and other Western powers have issued tepid calls for de-escalation, but their lack of a coherent strategy reflects a dangerous naivety.

Historically, the West’s failure to address the root causes of extremism in the Middle East has led to disastrous consequences. The rise of IS in the aftermath of the Iraq War and the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan are stark reminders of what happens when extremist groups are allowed to consolidate power. The HTS takeover of Aleppo and its broader ambitions to govern Syria could follow a similar trajectory.

Jolani’s rhetoric of “diversity” and “state-building” is a calculated attempt to gain international legitimacy. But his ultimate goal remains the establishment of an Islamic state, albeit one that is less overtly brutal than IS or the Taliban. The West must not be fooled by this facade. HTS’s roots in al-Qaeda and its history of violence make it a clear and present danger.

The geopolitical fallout

The fall of Assad and the rise of HTS have also reshaped the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. Turkey, which supported Sharaa’s offensive against Assad, is now poised to move against the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria. This could further destabilize the region and create a power vacuum that HTS is all too eager to fill.

Meanwhile, Russia, a longtime ally of Assad, is grappling with the fallout from the regime’s collapse. A recent visit by a high-level Russian delegation to Damascus highlighted the Kremlin’s efforts to maintain its influence in Syria. However, the new Syrian government’s demands for war reparations and Assad’s extradition have complicated these efforts.

The West must recognize that the rise of HTS is not just a Syrian problem—it is a global one. The group’s control of Aleppo and its ambitions to govern Syria could provide a safe haven for terrorists and exacerbate the refugee crisis, further destabilizing Europe and beyond.

Conclusion

The appointment of Ahmed al-Sharaa as Syria’s transitional president marks a dangerous new chapter in the country’s civil war. His ties to al-Qaeda and his leadership of HTS raise serious concerns about the future of Syria and the broader Middle East. The West’s ambivalence toward this development is a grave mistake.

History has shown that failing to confront extremist groups in their early stages leads to catastrophic consequences. The rise of HTS in Syria is a test of the West’s resolve and its commitment to global security. If we fail this test, the consequences will be felt far beyond the borders of Syria. The time for decisive action is now—before it’s too late.

Sources include:

TheNationalPulse.com

TheTelegraph.co.uk

BBC.com