I have conducted a great deal of personal and organizational security training, and at the beginning of each course, I would ask how many people in the room had ever had a gun pointed at them. Out of groups of fifteen to thirty people, maybe one or two would raise their hands, usually those who had worked overseas. However, in one group of around eighteen people in a large American city, all but two people raised their hands, none of whom had worked overseas. They were not law enforcement or security professionals, but they clearly came from a group with a higher risk profile than the average.

Factors Affecting Your Risk Profile

According to the 2023 Bureau of Justice Statistics Criminal Victimization Survey, there were 22.5 violent victimizations such as rape, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault per 1,000 Americans aged 12 or older in 2023. That is only an average; actual numbers will vary by geographical location and age group, but it is still concerning. Adolescents are more likely to be involved in violent situations than adults, especially in large cities and areas with heavy gang activity. Likewise, people living in inner city environments like Detroit or Chicago will be more at risk than someone living on a farm in Iowa. However, no matter where you are, just carrying a gun is not enough to avoid becoming a victim, so evaluating your risk profile is a good idea. Factors affecting your risk of being assaulted or robbed include:

• Age
• Geographical location
• Obvious signs of prosperity
• Physical condition
• Personal habits
• Gender

Reducing Your Risk Profile

Not every factor that affects your risk profile is within your immediate ability to change. For one, age is beyond your control. Young people are involved in more violence than older people, but is it their age that causes that or their judgment and behavior? Younger people tend to be more hot-headed and impulsive than older people, which accounts for their being involved in more violence. Being hot-headed and impulsive is far more likely to get you into trouble than being calm and avoiding a confrontation. Something to think about the next time someone cuts you off in traffic.

Location, Location, Location

More crime occurs in cities than in the country, but if you live or work in a city or heavily populated suburban setting, short of moving, there is not much you can do to change that. However, you do have some control over other factors like the fact that more violence occurs at bars than at grocery stores. Neighborhoods with lots of bars are risky, as are areas where there are a lot of drug deals going down. If you are traveling, try to avoid hotels in run-down areas. This isn’t always possible, especially if you are traveling for work. When I traveled on security contracts, I had to stay where my employer paid for my accommodations, which wasn’t always in nicer parts of cities like Oakland and Houston. In that case, do not wander around after dark. It is also wise to avoid businesses that do a lot of cash sales. Supermarkets do most of their business with credit cards compared to a small neighborhood convenience store that does a lot of cash business, making it a more desirable place for robbery.  

Physical Appearance and Attributes

Numerous studies on how criminals choose their victims indicate that a person’s physical attributes are key factors in victim selection. When shown videos of people on the street and told to decide who would make a good victim, criminals in prisons frequently passed up a woman or small man in favor of choosing a larger man as a victim because the big guy was not paying attention, and the others were. They also looked for people who appeared lost, walked with their heads down, refused to make eye contact, or shuffled their feet rather than moving with energy and purpose. Criminals are predators, and predators always look for weak prey.

Of course, it goes without saying that you should avoid walking or standing around with your nose buried in your phone. If you need to look at your phone to get directions or respond to an important message, step into a store or coffee shop and find a spot where you can check your phone without being exposed on the street. Don’t be that person who didn’t see it coming until it was all over.

Attitude

In addition to physical attributes, your attitude can be a critical factor. When conducting personal security training, I would tell people that when they walk down a street, walk with their heads up and look alert. If they see someone who looks shady or seems to be checking them out, make brief eye contact to let them know you see them and are aware of them. However, do not give them a hard stare that might be interpreted as a challenge. Thugs, like insecure dogs, often take prolonged eye contact as a threat or challenge. Let them know you see them and move on. Also realize that if someone bumps into you and then tries to make a big deal out of it, the whole episode may be a deliberate attempt to distract you or initiate a confrontation. Just say “Sorry” and move on. You have nothing to prove to anyone and getting into a confrontation can escalate quickly, especially if you are armed.

Indicators of Prosperity

We have all heard the advice never to leave valuable objects visible in your car because they attract thieves. The same holds true for your person. Someone wearing expensive clothes, or an expensive watch or jewelry is far more likely to be targeted than someone wearing jeans and a T-shirt. If you must dress for a work assignment or social event, be especially cognizant of where you park and how far you have to walk to get to your destination. If your business takes you to a bad neighborhood, leave the Rolex and gold chain at home.

It is also wise to consider how attractive your vehicle is to thieves. The cars stolen most often in America are not expensive foreign cars like BMWs or Mercedes. They aren’t even high-visibility vehicles like Jeeps. According to the latest report from the National Insurance Crime Bureau, Hyundais and Kias hold the top three spots on the list of cars stolen most often. Parking in a highly visible spot rather than a secluded spot can reduce the chance your car will be targeted, or that someone might be waiting for you when you return to it.

Bumper Stickers

Bumper stickers can be a great source of information for criminals. We all know that putting Glock or Sig stickers on your car tells bad guys it’s a good place to look for a gun, but it doesn’t stop there. Here are some other things to consider:

• Personalized license plates make it easier for someone to identify your car again if they want to keep track of you or if you inadvertently offend another driver.
• Baby on Board stickers tell people that you will be distracted and have your arms full when getting in and out of your car, making you an easy victim to sneak up on.
• Stickers for hunting, fishing, or outdoor sports like dirt biking tell people you have expensive toys and are gone on weekends.
• Honor Roll stickers tell people where your children attend school.
• Stickers for kids’ activities like soccer, dance, or gymnastics tell people you may be gone evenings and weekends for practices and events.
• Stickers that show your dog’s breed and even their name give thieves a heads up for what to watch out for at your house.

If these sound farfetched, then think again. Criminals may not be nice people, but they aren’t necessarily stupid. Victims are already forced to react to an assault, there is no point in giving criminals any more of an advantage than they already have.

A Note for Women

Gender is something else that you cannot change. The discussion of bumper stickers can be even more important for women. I have seen stickers on cars that include Girls Just Wanna Have Fun, Sexy Girl, and Caution, Driver Applying Makeup, all of which tell the world a woman owns that car. That can also be extended to other auto decoration accessories like fluffy steering wheel covers, feminine seat covers, or those eyelashes you see above people’s headlights.

Depending on where they are going, it is often wise for women to avoid flashy accessories. Just as with men, wearing expensive-looking accessories attracts attention and could make you a target. Several professional women I have spoken with firmly advise against flashy or expensive-looking rings, necklaces, and bracelets to avoid attracting the wrong kind of attention.

Summary

Carrying a gun you are trained to use is a wise precaution. But it is even better to reduce your risk profile, so you won’t need to use it. Remember, the best way to win a fight is to avoid it.