Self-described Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani cruised to victory in New York City’s Democrat mayoral primary last week. But for all the talk of the result being a grassroots, working-class uprising, the numbers tell a different story.
Mamdani’s win was largely driven by affluent, college-educated white voters concentrated in the city’s gentrified neighborhoods. He underperformed especially among black voters and struggled to gain traction in many working-class precincts. His platform may speak the language of class struggle, but his coalition looks more like a graduate seminar than a labor union.
According to a June 2025 Manhattan Institute poll conducted a week before the primary, Mamdani drew 67 percent support from college-educated voters ages 18 to 34. Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who came in second to Mamdani, received just six percent support among that cohort.
(It should be noted here that New York City uses ranked choice voting in primaries, where voters list up to five candidates in order of preference. For the purposes of this discussion, “support” for a certain candidate should be taken to mean those voters who chose that candidate as their top preference.)
That same poll also showed Mamdani with 60 percent support among all voters under 35, while Cuomo captured just 10 percent – clear evidence that Mamdani’s strength lies in the youngest, most ideologically progressive slice of the electorate. But while he dominated among urban progressives, he fared poorly with the Democrat Party’s traditional base.
Among black Democrat primary voters, Cuomo led 39 percent to Mamdani’s 16 percent, the same poll found. In a simulated general-election matchup, Cuomo continued to perform far better with black voters. Those numbers highlight just how narrow Mamdani’s coalition remains as he heads toward November.
Precinct-level returns paint a similar picture of a Democrat base deeply divided over Mamdani’s platform. According to a New York Times interactive map, Mamdani won precincts where the median household income was over $117,600 by 13 points, and those between $62,800 and $117,600 by 10 points. But in precincts where the median income was $62,800 or less, he lost by 13 points to Cuomo.
Furthermore, Mamdani’s strongest margins came from wealthy, gentrified enclaves such as Astoria, Greenpoint, and parts of Brooklyn. Cuomo, by contrast, dominated in historically working-class, majority-minority areas like Cambria Heights, the South Bronx, and East New York – undercutting the narrative that Mamdani is a champion of the working class and less fortunate.
An issue-by-issue breakdown also reflects the fact that Mamdani’s progressive platform appeals primarily to the relatively well-off. Seventy-five percent of Mamdani voters oppose enforcing minor offenses such as fare evasion or drug use in public. 30 percent of Cuomo voters listed crime and public safety as their top concern, compared to five percent of Mamdani voters. Why? Because most of Mamdani’s voters live in wealthy, upscale areas where crime is not as rampant.
Mamdani’s personal story adds another layer of irony to his self-styled image as a working-class outsider. He is the son of Mira Nair, a Harvard-educated, Oscar-nominated filmmaker, and Mahmood Mamdani, a prominent Columbia University professor. Critics call it political cosplay – a socialist revolutionary aesthetic backed by Ivy League pedigree.
What we’re seeing isn’t a class revolt. Rather, it’s a showcase of what author Rob Henderson calls “luxury beliefs,” or radical ideas fashionable among the privileged few who don’t have to live with the consequences of their failed ideals.
For progressive elites, “Democratic Socialist” is a political designer label of sorts, something affluent liberals flaunt while the very voters people like Mamdani claim to champion, working-class New Yorkers, aren’t buying it.
Mamdani has since walked back his prior outspoken support for defunding the police, abolishing ICE, boycotting Israel, and expanding city welfare programs – undoubtedly because he too sees how poorly these policies are playing with everyday New Yorkers. But early evidence suggests the damage is already done and he may not be able to repair his reputation with these voters.
New York’s growing Democrat divide reflects a broader pattern nationally. Working-class and minority voters, once the heart of the Democrat coalition, are increasingly rejecting progressive ideology. In Chicago, Mayor Brandon Johnson faces backlash over crime and migrant policy. In Los Angeles, Mayor Karen Bass was slammed for allowing pro-immigration protests to spiral into street blockades and masked rioters burning cop cars while waving foreign flags. And now New York Democrats have advanced a candidate who proudly champions socialist policies that will only further raise costs and dysfunction for working-class people.
While Mamdani’s supporters are loud online and energized on campuses, the evidence says they do not reflect the city’s median voter. Most New Yorkers, across racial and party lines, say the city is on the wrong track. They’re tired of dysfunction, violence, and slogans that never deliver.
The Manhattan Institute poll unsurprisingly suggests serious turbulence ahead. In a hypothetical general-election matchup, Cuomo earned 45 percent support citywide, compared to just 33 percent for Mamdani. Independent candidate Eric Adams and Republican Curtis Sliwa surged in that scenario, signaling that Mamdani’s nomination may have fractured the Democrat coalition.
Contrary to the excited reaction of fellow Democratic Socialists like Senator Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Mamdani’s victory wasn’t a populist wave. It was a boutique movement curated by and for elites looking to virtue signal rather than solve the city’s actual problems.
Sarah Katherine Sisk is a proud Hillsdale College alumna and a master’s student in economics at George Mason University. You can follow her on X @SKSisk76.
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