Posted on Monday, July 28, 2025
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by David Catron
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14 Comments
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Now that President Donald Trump has capped off a remarkably productive six months in office by signing the “One Big Beautiful Bill” into law, the White House and congressional Republicans are turning their attention to next year’s midterms. November of 2026 may seem a long way off, but retaining control of Congress will require an enormous amount of planning, work, and fundraising—all of which must begin immediately.
As a rule, the President’s party almost always loses congressional seats in the midterms, and it isn’t difficult to envision the kind of antics the Democrats will engage in if they retake either house of Congress. There are, however, various factors at play in the current political environment that suggest the Republicans may well defy history.
First, the GOP continues to expand its already wide fundraising lead. Second, countless polls indicate that congressional Democrats are enduring their worst approval ratings in decades. Third, the electorate is clearly in the midst of a widespread rightward shift. Fourth, the Republicans are making electoral gains among constituency groups that have traditionally voted Democrat. Fifth and finally, the GOP has strong leadership and a clear vision for the future, while the Democrats have neither.
All of these factors are reflected to some extent in the ability of the two parties to build war chests for the coming battle. The GOP continues to increase its cash reserves while the Democrat coffers remain all but empty. The Republican National Committee (RNC) had $80.7 million in cash on hand according to FEC reports released on July 21. The Democratic National Committee (DNC), meanwhile, had only $15.2 million in cash on hand in the same filing. The Republicans are raising more money than the Democrats ($96.4 million during the first half of the year compared to $69.2 million) and stashing more of it away.
Not only is the RNC building a formidable war chest while the DNC dithers, voters view congressional Republicans more favorably than their Democrat counterparts. A widely circulated Quinnipiac University Poll released two weeks ago found voter approval of congressional Democrats at its lowest point since March of 2009: “Fewer than 2 in 10 voters (19 percent) approve of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job, while 72 percent disapprove and 10 percent did not offer an opinion.”
Moreover, as Columbia University’s Stuart Gottlieb writes in Newsweek, “Resistance 2.0” won’t solve the problem:
“Democrats are understandably tempted to solve their current predicament in traditional fashion—confront Trump with a new ‘resistance,’ tweak their policies and messaging, hope the 2026 midterms go their way. But these are no longer traditional times. Fundamental shifts are occurring in the body politic that have left Democrats on the wrong side of the popular vote, congressional races, and the country’s shifting demographics. It’s time for a total re-do.”
For a sense of just how profound this rightward shift in the body politic has been, a New York Times analysis of the 2024 election produced this startling statistic: “More than 89 percent of counties in the United States shifted in favor of former President Donald J. Trump in the 2024 presidential election.” In terms of congressional districts, the news is even worse for Democrats. An analysis by The Downballot indicates that, from 2020 to 2024, Trump improved his performance in 416 out of 435 districts. That comes to more than 95 percent. Any Democrat strategist who isn’t frightened by that number should find a new line of work.
Even worse for the Democrats, the ongoing rightward shift has been driven by voters who once made up the core of the party’s traditional coalition. It’s not merely that they have, for all intents and purposes, lost the working class. Using the recent presidential election as an example, Michael Baharaeen at The Liberal Patriot writes, “The rightward shift nationally was propelled almost entirely by non-white voters.” This was by no means a one-off. Amie Parnes, reporting in The Hill on a recent poll conducted by Unite the Country, writes that “the Democratic Party’s credibility with voters has plummeted even further since the 2024 election.”
“Democrats are still feeling dejected and rudderless in the early months of the Trump presidency. An AP-NORC poll out in May revealed that only 35 percent of surveyed Democrats are optimistic about the party’s future, compared with 57 percent in July 2024. And there is an overwhelming sense that the party lacks strong leaders, the same poll showed. Democratic donors and bundlers have refused to cut checks for Democratic candidates, citing the party’s lack of enthusiasm and vision.”
This brings us to the intangible factor underlying every situation discussed above. Without the energetic leadership of President Trump, it’s unlikely the Republicans would enjoy their current fundraising advantage. Nor is it plausible that they would have pulled off the six-month winning streak that has driven down Democrat polling numbers.
Without Trump’s positive vision of America’s future, the ongoing rightward shift of the electorate would not have materialized, and the inroads Republicans have made in the traditional Democrat coalition would be unimaginable. Trump’s leadership, combined with his vision, is what animates the GOP.
Is the “Trump factor” enough to propel the “Grand Old Party” across the finish line in 2026 with its narrow congressional majorities intact? History suggests not. But the past has never been prologue for President Trump. When he entered his first presidential race, history was not on his side. Yet he defeated Hillary Clinton. When he announced his intention to run again, after four tempestuous years in the wilderness, historians reminded him that only one former president had ever been elected to a second nonconsecutive term. Yet he won again anyway.
With Trump’s leadership in the current political environment, even the Republicans can defy history.
David Catron is a Senior Editor at the American Spectator. His writing has also appeared in PJ Media, the American Thinker, the Providence Journal, the Catholic Exchange and a variety of other publications.
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