Posted on Tuesday, August 12, 2025
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by Barry Casselman
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11 Comments
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Politicians and pundits are always looking for historical analogues as a crystal ball to predict the results of upcoming elections. For the 2026 midterms – now less than 15 months away – it may be helpful to wind back the clock all the way to the 1930s and the birth of President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s “New Deal” coalition.
Technically, this is President Donald Trump’s second term. But his party’s prospects in the national midterm elections next year, if we compare them to Roosevelt’s early midterm election performances, appear more likely to resemble 1934 (his first-term midterm) than 1938.
That 1934 midterm election was notable because the momentum from Roosevelt’s historic defeat of GOP President Herbert Hoover in 1932 carried over two years later as FDR and his administration were still in the early throes of combating the effects of the Great Depression.
This momentum kept going through to 1936 when Roosevelt was re-elected for a second term.
Only in 1938, following a new recession and an unpopular court-packing battle, did FDR and the Democrats suffer the historically traditional midterm defeat.
President Trump may now also be on the cusp of avoiding the dreaded “midterm curse.” The reasons for this unusual reversal appear to come from the perception that, despite President Trump’s return to the presidency after being defeated for re-election in 2020 (only the second time in U.S. history a president has won non-consecutive terms), his current administration is bringing about more and quicker change than he did during his first term, which was upended by the global pandemic. The rapid and relatively abrupt change we have seen thus far resembles FDR’s first two years in office.
Of course, it is only conjecture at this point that 2026 will resemble 1934 and not 1938. But given the GOP successes so far, and the Democrats’ historically low approval rating resulting from their apparent post-2024 drift to the far left, it would seem to be a reasonable current conjecture.
In the 1934 midterms (FDR’s first term), Democrats gained nine net U.S. Senate seats, nine net U.S. House seats, and one net governorship.
In 1938 (FDR’s second term), Republicans gained eight net U.S. Senate seats, an astonishing 81 net U.S. House seats, and 12 net governorships.
For comparison, in 1982 (President Ronald Reagan’s first midterm), Democrats gained one net U.S. Senate seat, 26 net U.S. House seats, and seven net governorships. That election does offer a cautionary alternative to 2026 should the economy unexpectedly hit a downturn and President Trump’s policies fail to succeed.
As already noted, President Roosevelt continued his winning streak in the 1936 general election, when he won his second term. In 1940, with the economy recovering and war underway in Europe, Roosevelt won an unprecedented third term. In 1984, with a booming economy, Reagan won a huge landslide re-election against Democrat Walter Mondale.
One difference between 1934 and 2026 is that there will be no general election on the horizon with an incumbent running, as President Trump is term-limited.
But the current direction of the Democrat Party, as evidenced by the emergence of openly radical and self-styled socialist urban elected officials and candidates, is accomplishing the opposite of what usually happens in a midterm election. Specifically, this development is motivating the voters supporting the party in power to show up and vote while alienating many voters in the opposition party. Still enthusiastic about the New Deal in 1934, Democrats were energized, and Republicans were not. Four years later, it was the reverse. In 1982, as well, many Republicans stayed home while many Democrats were motivated to reverse the effects of their 1980 wipeout.
A political realignment is now taking place in the U.S. as voters who were formerly reliable voters for Democrats, including union members, Hispanics, and blacks, are now increasingly voting Republican. Young voters and independents are also increasingly casting their ballots for conservative candidates.
Radical and neo-socialist ideas and policies are not likely to bring these voters back to the Democratic side. Already, some younger Democratic leaders are beginning to reject this stridently leftward movement and openly criticize it. The resulting division in the liberal party is not likely to excite the party’s non-activist base and bring them to the polls in November 2026, when they would be needed to defeat Republican incumbents and challengers.
No national election cycle is exactly like any other. The conditions and circumstances of 2026 are unique. President Trump is unlike any president in the nation’s history. Domestic and international events are in new political territory.
Nevertheless, as happened in 1934, the national midterms in 2026 seem on a course to defy traditional results.
Barry Casselman is a contributor to AMAC Newsline.
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