Posted on Monday, October 27, 2025
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by David Catron
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Virginia’s statewide off-year elections this November were predicted by most “experts” to be an easy win for the Democrats. Usually, the party that wins the White House struggles in the Old Dominion during the following year. Yet the most reputable polls show a much tighter race than expected. Even more surprising, after five weeks of early voting the heavily Republican areas of the Commonwealth have consistently had stronger turnout than have the state’s Democrat strongholds – perhaps setting the stage for a historic upset.
The top of the ticket this year features a showdown between incumbent Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger. Spanberger, who previously represented Virginia’s 7th Congressional District, was viewed going into the race as a safe bet to reclaim the governor’s mansion following Republican Glenn Youngkin’s victory four years ago.
But Spanberger’s campaign strategy relies heavily on her having a substantial early vote lead in order to offset the Republican turnout advantage that is expected on Election Day. So far, that has not happened. If current trends hold and the Republican early vote tally remains higher or even equal to that of the Democrats until November 4, Earle-Sears will likely become the first Black woman in history to be elected governor of a state.
In order to win any election, Democrats rely heavily on early voting—particularly by mail—far more than Republicans. They need to “bank” the ballots of their loyal supporters before Election Day, when GOP voters invariably turn out in significantly higher numbers. If the anemic turnout of Virginia Democrats continues until November 1, the last day of early voting, Spanberger may not be able to make up the difference on November 4.
Early voting began on September 19 and, according to the Virginia Public Access Project (VPAP), turnout is far higher (145 percent) than it was at this point in 2021—just before Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe. Yet the increase in turnout has been weak in heavily Democrat redoubts.
Norfolk, for example, is one of Virginia’s largest cities and notoriously dominated by the Democrats. Yet its 2025 early vote total is only 10 percent higher than it was at the same point in 2021. That suggests surprisingly anemic Democrat enthusiasm. Still, it’s necessary to look beyond mere anecdotal data to see how early voting in the entire Commonwealth is trending.
This is challenging because Virginia doesn’t register voters by party affiliation. Fortunately, VPAP provides early vote totals by congressional district. There are eleven U.S. House districts in Virginia—five held by Republicans and six held by Democrats. As of October 24, VPAP shows that 898,559 early ballots have been cast throughout the Commonwealth—454,521 in Republican districts and 444,038 in Democrat districts. That lead seems modest until one considers that Democrat districts outnumber Republican districts six to five. Yet, despite that disadvantage, the GOP has consistently maintained a lead in early votes cast.
There are several reasons to believe this reflects lackluster enthusiasm for Spanberger and that it will continue through Election Day. The most obvious is the scandal involving the Democrat candidate for Attorney General, Jay Jones. Earlier this month, National Review published a series of texts showing Jones fantasizing about putting “two bullets” in a prominent Republican’s head and wishing his wife could watch her child die in her arms. Jones is also under investigation for scheming to avoid jail time following a reckless driving conviction.
Spanberger has faced intense criticism pursuant to her failure to call on Jones to drop out of the Attorney General race – particularly after she exhorted her supporters to “let your rage fuel you.”
Spanberger is also vulnerable on her support for gender ideology, which became a defining issue of the 2021 gubernatorial contest. In Congress, Spanberger co-sponsored the so-called “Equality Act,” which would have forced schools to allow males to compete on women’s sports teams and forced private businesses like spas and pools to allow men who claim to be women into women’s restrooms and locker rooms.
Earle-Sears has made it clear that she is opposed to male students using female private spaces at school and competing in women’s sports. Spanberger has, however, studiously avoided addressing the issue. During the October 9 debate between the two candidates, one of the moderators tried several times to get Spanberger to state her own position clearly. She instead sidestepped the question each time with this kind of blather: “My answer is that in each local community decisions should be made between parents and educators, and teachers in each community.”
After the Jay Jones scandal broke and Spanberger repeatedly refused to address the “trans rights” issue, Earle-Sears began to pick up momentum. Desperate to regain control of the narrative, the Democrats who dominate Virginia’s legislature suddenly decided late last week to call a special session to begin the process of redrawing the state’s legislative districts to favor Democrats.
As Virginia’s Lt. Governor, Earle-Sears will be forced to leave the campaign trail and preside over the State Senate as it considers the gerrymandering issue. This will prevent her from meeting with voters and fundraising during the crucial final week of the race.
Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin angrily called the Democrats out for this blatant election interference: “They take on this desperate political ploy to try to overwhelm the will of the people, and on top of that, try to keep Winsome Earle-Sears from being out on the campaign trail,” he said. “It’s clear what they’re doing. Virginians should not stand for this. That’s why I’m asking everybody to go out and vote. Make your voice heard.”
This skullduggery may well backfire, however. Just five years ago, Virginia’s voters overwhelmingly passed a constitutional amendment creating a bipartisan commission to carry out redistricting. They aren’t very likely to be pleased that the Democrats are ignoring that result at the behest of liberal power brokers in Washington, D.C., who donated big bucks to Spanberger and the Virginia House Democrat caucus mere hours before they launched the redistricting push.
Voters are already less than enthusiastic about the Democrats, as the early voting numbers suggest. This latest gambit could well inspire a lot more Republicans and Independents to get out and vote early. It could also augment the Election Day surge that was already expected before the Democrat gerrymandering scheme was hatched. We’ll know in just over a week.
David Catron is a Senior Editor at the American Spectator. His writing has also appeared in PJ Media, the American Thinker, the Providence Journal, the Catholic Exchange and a variety of other publications.
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