European officials fear U.S.-backed plan risks cementing Israeli occupation of Gaza

  • A temporary Israeli defensive line in Gaza risks becoming a permanent border.
  • The U.S. is pushing a reconstruction plan only for the Israeli-occupied side.
  • This plan would require a massive forced migration of Palestinians.
  • Israel is backing anti-Hamas militias within the occupied zone.
  • The stalemate over Hamas disarmament and Gaza’s governance remains unresolved.

A dangerous new reality is hardening in Gaza, and it’s one that threatens to permanently erase the territory’s geography and subjugate its people under indefinite Israeli military rule. As the Trump administration’s ceasefire plan falters, European officials and regional powers are sounding the alarm that a temporary Israeli defensive line is poised to become a de facto international border, partitioning the strip and leading to the long-term occupation of approximately 53 percent of Palestinian land.

This so-called “yellow line,” marked by large yellow cement blocks, currently divides Israeli-occupied Gaza from the Hamas-controlled remainder of the strip. Under the initial ceasefire agreement, this line was meant to be temporary. However, with key elements of the peace plan stalled, six European officials with direct knowledge of the efforts told Reuters the line risks becoming an indefinite border, locking in a years-long separation.

The Trump administration is now pushing a controversial reconstruction plan that would apply only to the Israeli-occupied side. The Atlantic reported the U.S. is considering building “Alternate Safe Communities” – temporary housing for thousands of Palestinians who have been “screened” and approved by Israeli intelligence. The proposal underscores a shift from temporary security measures toward a permanent demographic change.

Palestinian rejection and militia control

Arab countries have been warning against the plan, expressing deep skepticism that Palestinians would ever agree to live under the control of the power they blame for their suffering. “Palestinians may not want to live under the rule of Hamas, but the idea that they’ll be willing to move to live under Israeli occupation and be under control of the party they also see as responsible for killing 70,000 of their brethren is fantastical,” an Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel.

The demographic challenge is serious. Less than two percent of Gaza’s population currently lives on the Israeli-occupied side of the yellow line. The plan would require a massive, forced migration of people into a zone controlled by the very military that destroyed their original homes. This has led to accusations that the true goal is not reconstruction but a deliberate fragmentation of Palestinian society.

Further complicating the security picture, Israel is backing at least four anti-Hamas militias and gangs within the occupied zone. One of these groups is led by Yasser Abu Shabab, who admitted in 2024 that his group was looting aid trucks and whose members have ties to ISIS. The U.S. has reportedly been in contact with these groups about “enforcing order,” raising troubling questions about the rule of law in a future partitioned Gaza.

Deadlock over disarmament and governance

The core of the stalemate lies in the disarmament of Hamas and the governance of Gaza. Hamas has ruled out disarming without the establishment of a Palestinian state, a prospect the Israeli government repeatedly rejects. Meanwhile, European and Arab states want the Western-backed Palestinian Authority to return to Gaza, but Israel opposes any involvement by the Authority.

This deadlock has left the U.S. plan effectively stalled. A State Department spokesperson acknowledged “tremendous progress” but conceded there was more work to do. Without a major U.S. push to break the impasse, the current reality looks set to become permanent. Michael Wahid Hanna of the International Crisis Group warned that U.S. proposals suggest the fragmented reality risks becoming “locked into something much more longer term.”

The human cost of this division is immeasurable. Gaza City resident Salah Abu Amr voiced the fears of many, questioning the criteria for who would be allowed into the Israeli zone. “Are we all going to be able to move into that area? Or Israel will have a veto over the entry of some of us?” he asked. “Are they also going to divide the families between good people, bad people?”

What was meant to be a temporary security measure is quietly transforming into a potential permanent border, carving up a land and its people. This move not only abandons the goal of a unified Palestinian territory but sets a chilling precedent for how military occupation can quietly evolve into annexation, all under the guise of a failed peace process and with the tacit approval of a superpower. The yellow line in the sand is becoming a wall.

Sources for this article include:

News.Antiwar.com

MiddleEastEye.net

Reuters.com

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