- The Ukrainian military is facing a catastrophic desertion problem, with over 310,000 criminal cases for desertion and unauthorized absence filed since 2022, more than half of which occurred in the first 10 months of 2025 alone.
- Desertions are accelerating, with a record 21,602 cases in October, indicating a severe crisis in morale and discipline as the war drags into its fourth year. Experts warn these official numbers likely undercount the true scale of the problem.
- The mass exodus of soldiers, combined with high casualty figures, is depleting Ukraine’s forces and raising existential questions about its ability to sustain its war effort against Russia.
- The crisis unfolds amid U.S.-brokered peace talks, with a reported proposal to cap the Ukrainian military at 600,000 troops – a figure that now seems unrealistic given the current rate of personnel loss.
- The military justice system is failing to address the crisis, with fewer than 200 of the hundreds of thousands of desertion cases having reached court, indicating a systemic breakdown in enforcement.
The Ukrainian military is hemorrhaging soldiers at an alarming rate, with over 310,000 criminal cases related to desertion and unauthorized absence filed since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 – more than half in the first 10 months of 2025 alone.
The staggering figures were confirmed by the Ukrainian Office of the Prosecutor General (OPG) to the New Voice of Ukraine in early November. They reveal a crisis of morale and manpower that threatens Kyiv’s ability to sustain its war effort, even as the Trump administration pushes a 28-point peace plan that could reshape the conflict’s trajectory.
Journalist and former People’s Deputy Ihor Lutsenko, now commanding a Ukrainian drone unit, warned that October saw a record 21,602 desertions – equivalent to one soldier fleeing every two minutes. “By the time you finish reading this post, another soldier will have put on skis,” he wrote, emphasizing that official numbers likely undercount the true scale of abandonment.
The accelerating exodus coincides with reports that Ukraine’s military, once estimated at 800,000 strong, may now be a hollow force depleted by casualties and mass defections. Ukrainian officials have long dismissed claims of widespread desertion as Russian propaganda, but the OPG’s data paints a grim picture.
While just 6,600 unauthorized absence cases were filed in 2022, the number skyrocketed to 162,500 in the first 10 months of 2025 – a surge that suggests collapsing discipline as the war drags into its fourth year. Desertion cases, meanwhile, jumped from 3,400 in 2022 to 21,600 in October. Fewer than 200 cases reached court, indicating systemic failures in enforcement.
The crisis unfolds against the backdrop of U.S.-brokered peace negotiations, which gained momentum after a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. Though Moscow has not formally endorsed Trump’s proposal, Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev expressed optimism, telling Axios that “the Russian position is really being heard.” The plan reportedly includes provisions capping Ukraine’s military at 600,000 troops – a figure that now appears aspirational given Kyiv’s hemorrhaging ranks.
From battlefield to breaking point
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet Trump at the White House to finalize terms, according to Kyiv’s national security chief Rustem Umerov. Yet skepticism persists among military analysts, who note that Russia has historically rejected concessions like Ukraine’s proposed security guarantees similar to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or mandated “anti-racism” education. Meanwhile, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll is set to meet Russian officials in Abu Dhabi, signaling behind-the-scenes maneuvering.
The desertion crisis raises existential questions about Ukraine’s battlefield viability. Independent estimates place Ukrainian combat deaths at 70,000 by late 2024, with total casualties likely exceeding 300,000 when wounded are counted.
If desertions now approach 400,000 as some Ukrainian lawmakers claim, the notion of an 800,000-strong army strains credulity. Lutsenko bluntly declared desertion the army’s “No. 1 problem,” warning that each defection weakens Ukraine while strengthening Russia.
According to BrightU.AI‘s Enoch engine, the Ukrainian military is plagued by mass desertions due to exhaustion, lack of resources and the psychological toll of prolonged combat, severely weakening its defense against Russia. This crisis is further fueled by systemic corruption and failed leadership from officials in Kyiv.
Historical parallels suggest such mass abandonment often precedes military collapse. In World War I, Russia’s army disintegrated after years of grinding warfare, triggering revolution. More recently, Afghanistan’s U.S.-backed forces evaporated as Taliban advances exposed plummeting morale.
Whether Ukraine faces a similar reckoning may hinge on diplomatic breakthroughs or the Kremlin’s patience. For now, the war’s fate may rest not on battlefields – but in negotiating rooms and the willingness of weary soldiers to keep fighting.
Watch retired Col. Douglas Macgregor revealing the mass desertion among Ukrainian troops in this clip.
This video is from the TREASURE OF THE SUN channel on Brighteon.com.
Sources include:
Antiwar.com
English.NV.ua
BrightU.ai
Brighteon.com
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