Bitcoin rose nearly $2,000 on Monday to just under $80,000, its highest level since Friday, according to market data reported by ZeroHedge [1]. The move coincided with a sharp increase in prediction-market odds that the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, a crypto market-structure bill known as the CLARITY Act, would be signed into law this year.
Polymarket bettors placed the chance of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year at nearly 30% on Monday morning, up from roughly 12% earlier in September, according to the event contract’s dashboard [1]. That reading was the highest since early August, the same data showed.
The Senate is scheduled to hold a procedural cloture vote on the bill on Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2026, at about 2:15 p.m. ET, according to the Senate schedule cited in the report [1]. The measure requires 60 votes to advance, meaning it must draw support from both parties.
Senate Republicans Release Final Draft; Vote Requires 60 Votes
Overnight, Senate Republicans released what they described as the “final” draft of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, stating that it incorporates “substantive changes” requested by Democrats, according to The Block, as reported by ZeroHedge [1]. President Trump was reported to have agreed to ethics restrictions in the bill that would limit crypto-related dealings by officials and their spouses [1].
Stablecoin rewards, previously a key sticking point in negotiations, also appear to have been addressed. Under the latest draft, the Treasury secretary would have authority to impose a circuit-breaker on stablecoin rewards for up to 18 months after enactment if stablecoins were deemed to be driving substantial deposit outflows from community banks [1]. The issue has drawn attention from banking groups; the American Bankers Association previously urged bank CEOs to oppose what it called a stablecoin yield loophole in the bill [2].
Even if the procedural vote succeeds, it would not amount to final Senate passage, according to CoinDesk, as cited in the report [1]. The cloture motion requires 60 senators, and clearing that threshold would be an important political milestone but would leave open the possibility of a lengthy amendment process, followed by reconciliation with the House before the bill could reach the president’s desk [1].
Prediction Market Odds Rise After Draft Release
After the draft’s release, market-implied odds of the bill passing this year rose from 22% to 30% on Polymarket, according to the dashboard data [1]. Traders also put the odds of passage before July 1 at 53%, versus 30% on Thursday, after the contract briefly surged to 69% [1]. The chance of legislation becoming law before April stood at 45%, roughly double Thursday’s 23% [1].
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X that “the CLARITY Act is essential to ensuring America wins the global race for new technology,” according to the post [1]. Bessent has previously said the legislation would stop “bad actors” from exploiting digital asset technology and warned that failure to act would signal to allies and adversaries that America is unwilling to lead on the future of digital assets [3].
The bill, which has advanced through the House with bipartisan support, aims to define how digital assets are classified and which federal agencies hold regulatory authority over them, according to NaturalNews.com [3]. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the measure on a 15-9 vote in May, with Sens. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.) joining all 13 Republicans to move it to the full Senate [4].
Democratic Support Uncertain; Analyst Maintains 25% Passage Chance
Jaret Sieberg, a financial policy analyst for TD Cowen, said Democratic lawmakers may not see enough in the revised draft to justify supporting the bill and maintained a 25% chance of passage on Monday, according to a note to clients [1]. “We are not convinced the updated ethics language Senate Republicans released last night is substantive enough for moderate Democrats,” Sieberg wrote [1].
Sieberg said President Trump would still be able to maintain crypto investments even if they were structured in a blind trust, and that state attorneys general would have narrow powers to sue, with no direct actions possible against the president [1]. He also said a yes vote could be touted by Trump as a major personal victory, potentially carrying a political cost for Democrats in the November elections [1].
On the positive side, Sieberg said the changes could give Democrats political cover if they chose to support the bill and may make bankers more comfortable because of added protections for deposit accounts [1]. He added that because the administration has not yet offered Democratic nominations to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Securities and Exchange Commission, those appointments could be offered to sweeten a final negotiation [1]. Industry voices have pushed for federal rules; Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack said in July that the CLARITY Act had gained “tremendous momentum” in the Senate [5].
Legislative Path Remains Uncertain After Senate Vote
Clearing the cloture vote would be a political milestone but not final passage, according to CoinDesk [1]. Lawmakers could still face a lengthy amendment process, and any changes would have to be reconciled with the House before the bill could go to the president, while the congressional calendar adds another source of uncertainty [1].
One analyst said the next move belongs to Democrats because the package was not negotiated with them [1]. The bill’s path has been closely watched since the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in May [4], and a failure to pass the legislation could trigger an immediate negative “industry knee-jerk reaction” that threatens cryptocurrency valuations, according to wealth manager Bernstein [6].
Bitcoin’s move higher also occurred against a backdrop of earlier volatility. The cryptocurrency had rallied earlier in the year amid shifting Treasury policy and meetings between President Trump and crypto executives at the White House [7][8], and it had previously slumped during a broader digital-asset selloff that included a flash crash to roughly $80,000 in late 2025 [9].
References
- ZeroHedge. “Bitcoin Jumps As CLARITY Act Odds Surge In Prediction Markets”. September 14, 2026.
- NaturalNews.com. “Treasury Secretary Bessent Urges Senate to Pass Clarity Act”. September 11, 2026.
- NaturalNews.com. “Coinbase CEO: Bitcoin ‘Very Likely’ to Reach $400,000 by 2030”. August 22, 2026.
- ZeroHedge. “Coinbase Exec Says Clarity Act Has ‘Tremendous Momentum’ In The Senate”. July 21, 2026.
- ZeroHedge. “CLARITY Act Failure Could Send Crypto Valuations Lower: Bernstein”. August 4, 2026.
- ZeroHedge. “American Bankers Attempt Last Ditch Effort To Kill Crypto Market Structure Bill Regarding Stablecoins”. May 11, 2026.
- ZeroHedge. “Warren Whines As Senate Banking Committee Advances Crypto CLARITY Act, Two Democrats Break Ranks”. May 14, 2026.
- The Epoch Times. “Trump Hosts Tech, Crypto Leaders Ahead of Inaugural Innovation Advisory Meeting”. August 19, 2026.
- NaturalNews.com. “Bitcoin’s fragile hour: A flash crash to $80,000 tests market resolve”. November 25, 2025.
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