- A prominent Georgia farmer has cut 45% of his leased acreage due to unsustainable input costs and low commodity prices.
- Economists warn of a severe cost-price squeeze, with projected negative profits per acre for major crops like corn and soybeans.
- Input costs for items like fertilizer, seed and machinery remain near record highs while crop revenues have fallen sharply.
- The financial strain is leading to increased farm exits, bankruptcies and warnings of unplanted cropland in 2026.
- Policy safety net improvements are not set to take effect until late 2026, leaving farmers to navigate a deepening crisis.
In the heart of Georgia’s prime agricultural belt, a generational grower’s drastic decision to abandon nearly half his farmland has become a stark symbol of a deepening national crisis. Interviewed by Farm Journal, Alex Harrell, a record-setting soybean producer, shared how just a few months ago, he notified a dozen landlords that he was dropping his lease on their acreage—3,000 acres of his 6,000-acre operation. This move, driven by a brutal combination of skyrocketing production expenses and collapsing commodity prices, signals an alarming inflection point for American agriculture. As farmers from the Southeast to the Mid-Atlantic grapple with the same economic vise, warnings grow of significant unplanted acreage in the coming year, threatening the stability of the nation’s food production system.
The unbearable math of modern farming
Harrell’s choice was not impulsive but the result of cold calculation. Facing input costs for fertilizer, chemicals and machinery that had risen 300% over a short period, he graded every leased field on a harsh scale from A to F. Factors included soil productivity, irrigation costs, distance and rent. Any parcel scoring a C or worse in more than two categories was cut. “The numbers aren’t complicated,” Harrell explained. “We are literally paying to farm—not getting paid to farm.” His experience is not isolated. Economic analysis confirms a historic cost-price squeeze, with 2025 production expenses projected at a record $467 billion, $85 billion above the ten-year average. Meanwhile, commodity prices have plummeted: corn is down 54% and soybeans down 58% from their 2022 peaks. With grocery prices so high, consumers don’t realize the challenges farmers are facing.
A landscape of negative returns
The financial reality for row-crop farmers has shifted from thin margins to profound losses. Current profitability projections paint a dire picture across nearly all major commodities:
- Cotton: -$379.00 per acre
- Corn: -$169.31 per acre
- Soybeans: -$114.15 per acre
- Wheat: -$111.64 per acre
These negative returns are unsustainable, eroding equity and eliminating the capital needed to reinvest. “Breaking even is bad enough in farming, but we’re all way below that around here,” Harrell said. The strain is manifesting in increased financial stress. While Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies are rising, they represent only a fraction of the exits, with the U.S. having lost over 160,000 farms between 2017 and 2024.
The human toll on a way of life
The crisis extends beyond spreadsheets to the future of multigenerational family farms. In Virginia Beach, Robert Vaughan of the 330-year-old Vaughan Farms contemplates shutting down within a decade. “The input costs on seed, fertilizer, chemicals—everything has skyrocketed,” Vaughan said, noting that additional pressures like tariffs on Canadian imports further squeeze his strawberry operation. He represents a growing demographic of aging farmers with no clear succession plan, as younger generations are discouraged by the prospect of working for sub-minimum wage returns. This attrition threatens not just rural economies but also regional food systems and the nation’s agricultural knowledge base.
A safety net too far on the horizon
Policy responses have been slow to match the accelerating crisis. The recent One Big Beautiful Bill Act makes meaningful improvements to farm safety net programs like Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) by raising reference prices. However, most of these critical changes do not take effect until October 2026. This leaves farmers like Harrell and Vaughan to navigate at least two more growing seasons without enhanced support, during which economists warn the worst may still be coming. “In some ways, I think the worst part is still to come, but people don’t realize that yet,” Harrell cautioned.
An uncertain harvest ahead
Alex Harrell’s decision to shrink his operation from a 30-mile radius to a tightened 10-mile circle is a microcosm of a sector in contraction. His warning that “there will be significant acres in my area that won’t be planted next year” echoes concerns from economists who see farm financial reserves depleting. The historical context is clear: while agriculture is cyclical, the current convergence of persistently high global input costs, weakened export demand and lagging policy support has created a uniquely severe downturn. The outcome will hinge on whether market forces or policy interventions can bridge the gap before more farmers are forced to walk away, leaving behind not just unplanted ground, but a fundamental question about the affordability and security of the American food supply.
Sources for this article include:
ZeroHedge.com
FB.org
Wavy.com
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