In their quest to retain Virginia’s executive offices this November, Old Dominion Republicans have leaned on a novel catchphrase: “Don’t California My Virginia.” Looking at the economic records of the two states, it’s easy to see why the GOP believes this to be a winning message.
In 2021, Governor Glenn Youngkin became the first Republican to win statewide in Virginia since 2009. Since then, he has led a period of remarkable economic growth that has seen the state’s economy diversify away from being heavily reliant on public-sector jobs. Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, now the Republican nominee for governor, is billing herself as a continuation of that legacy.
California, meanwhile, while still an economic giant, has seen companies flee amid high taxes, stringent regulations, and widespread chaos and lawlessness in the Golden State’s cities. Republicans are doing everything they can to compare the policies of the Democrat nominee in Virginia, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, to that failed record.
Youngkin’s numbers are truly astounding. In June, his administration marked $100 billion in private-sector investments in Virginia since he took office, translating to some 265,000 jobs. Since then that number has grown even further, now at more than $125 billion. Just this week, Google pledged $9 billion to expand its cloud and AI infrastructure in the state.
Common-sense spending, low taxes, and less regulation are to thank for that success. For fiscal year 2025, Virginia tallied a budget surplus of $572 million – on top of the $2.1 billion in surpluses already banked during Youngkin’s term. That’s a far cry from the results just to the north in Washington, D.C., where Congress now regularly runs trillion-dollar deficits.
Some other major new deals brokered by Youngkin include investments from the LEGO Group, Hilton, Micron, AstraZeneca, and dozens of smaller companies.
Perhaps most impressively of all, Youngkin has accomplished all of this while facing headwinds from a Democrat-controlled legislature that has sought to undermine his every move. Youngkin has vetoed dozens of Democrat bills that would have buried Virginians in red tape.
Democrats have latched on to a recent CNBC “Top States for Business” ranking showing Virginia dropping from first in 2024 to fourth in 2025 to suggest that Youngkin’s agenda hasn’t been as successful as advertised.
But this ranking is, of course, highly subjective. CNBC appears to be on a political vendetta to “punish” Virginia for President Donald Trump’s efforts to fire unnecessary federal workers, many of whom live in Virginia’s northern counties, as the state’s drop in the rankings is attributable to that development. But nothing about Department of Government Efficiency cuts makes Virginia inherently better or worse for business – if anything, it just means that there are more workers available for companies that want to move in.
While Virginia posts surpluses and adds high-quality jobs, California is doing the opposite. The Golden State ran a $45 billion deficit last year, and its total state and local debt topped $500 billion in November.
California is also shedding private employers at a rapid clip. Between 2011 and 2021, more than 780 company headquarters left the state, accounting for more than 77,000 jobs, and the trend has only worsened since. Tesla, Oracle, Hewlett-Packard, and Palantir are just a few of the major firms that have fled for more hospitable states.
It’s not difficult to see why companies are looking to relocate to states like Virginia. California’s tax burden is the second highest in the nation. The state has imposed nearly 400,000 regulatory restrictions, totaling more than 21 million words in its administrative code. By contrast, Governor Youngkin’s aggressive deregulation push has resulted in a 26.8 percent reduction in red tape, saving Virginians more than $1.2 billion annually. Homebuilders alone are saving an average of $24,000 per new home constructed, translating to roughly $723 million in total annual savings.
As economist John Breughel observed, these are “measurable administrative savings” that directly lower costs and drive economic growth. And Governor Youngkin isn’t stopping there – he plans to cut regulations by another 35 percent before he leaves office this January, unleashing even more private-sector investment.
California’s runaway spending on welfare programs – 81 percent higher than the national average – has also made it a magnet for illegal immigration and organized crime. In the CNBC “Quality of Life” rankings, Virginia placed eighth, while California sank to 32nd. But while Youngkin recently signed an executive order directing Virginia law enforcement to cooperate fully with ICE in removing the estimated 250,000 illegal immigrants living in the state, California Governor Gavin Newsom has pledged to keep California a “sanctuary state.”
With foreign companies pouring money into Virginia and long-established American firms relocating from California, the contrast between the two states could not be more stark. One is the model for a 21st-century economy. The other is an expensive warning sign of what happens when progressive ideology overrides common sense.
No wonder Republicans in Virginia are warning voters not to “California” the Commonwealth. At stake in this year’s elections is whether Virginia continues down a path of low taxes, job creation, and safe communities – or whether it reverts to the same failed model that’s driving businesses and families out of California in droves.
Ben Solis is the pen name of an international affairs journalist, historian, and researcher.
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