An earthquake in stopping fentanyl deaths is possible, based on rumors that China wants to escape Trump’s unprecedented tariffs. Speaking from history, however, that earthquake is still unlikely.

When Trump came to office, he hit China with 20 percent tariffs to stop fentanyl from coming to America. Nothing seems to have changed. China hit the U.S. with escalating tariffs, and Trump hit back. U.S. tariffs on China are now at 145 percent, a first.

Something may be changing. The Wall Street Journal reports China is feeling pressure to strike a deal before a major recession – caused by Trump’s tariffs – creates unrest. So China may offer regulations on fentanyl, which kills upwards of 100,000 Americans a year.

Fifty times more potent than heroin, Chinese fentanyl –  found from Maine to California –  is the deadliest drug on U.S. soil, originating in 600 Chinese factories.

For two decades, China has shipped enormous amounts of fentanyl and ingredients to make synthetic analogues to the U.S. directly and via Asian, European, and South American traffickers.

Biden pretended to care, accepted China’s empty promises – which amounted to three rounds of industry regulation on paper by China, no change in shipments. Biden kept taking China’s money, no follow-up, no accountability, no indication anything he said affected China.

On its face, the news that China wants to offer new ways to reduce the export of Chinese fentanyl and precursors to America is encouraging – but realistically looks like more of the same, just another promise by Lucy not to move the football, as we kick off the next round of trade talks.

Missing is any indication that China has any interest in stopping this poison from killing a million Americans a decade, compounded by illegal Chinese trafficking, and manning illegal grow houses.

Why would they want to stop the killing when this insidious invasion by drug gangs is doing such a good job of killing their leading adversary’s children, even in rural places like Maine?

Is there any hope here? Yes. On the state-by-state front, some states are serious about getting Chinese, Dominican, Mexican, El Salvadorian, Venezuelan, other drug and human trafficking gangs – all lawless and violent – out of their borders. State law enforcement works, and it is possible.

But what about nationally? Normally, I would say no, China is going to keep doing what they do, gaming the international system, saying one thing, doing another. BUT this is the era of Donald Trump. China has never stared down the barrel of 145 percent tariffs. Their economy is shivering.

And there is a wild card, a new capability which – perhaps surprisingly – China could bring to bear for good, rather than nefarious purposes. Two trends are working toward each other. Their crossing or interception or collision, could cause an earthquake.

The first is China’s internal ability to monitor almost everything, including every individual face, place, and act of its billion people through artificial Intelligence, biometrics, and quantum computing. In other words, finding and tracking production for all fentanyl factories – now possible.

Second is the pressure Trump is putting on China, not something China has felt before, ever. It is frustrating, painful, could have an effect on China’s ability to maintain order – if things worsen.

So, where does this lead? In recent years, China has granted 40 internal fentanyl production licenses, as some uses of fentanyl are medical and legitimate. They give tax breaks to these entities. They assert there is no illegitimate activity, but that is highly questionable.

Putting the illegitimate production and legitimate together, the truth is that monitoring it all may have been historically hard, even if China had wanted to do so – and it seems they profited from either encouraging the illicit activity or looking the other way. Now, we are in a new day.

China now could probably monitor every milligram of the production process at legitimate and illegitimate production locations, not to mention transport hubs, mail and international export venues. What may have been less possible is now more possible.

But all this begs the real question. Does China want – or be made to want – to reduce exports of fentanyl and ingredients, since it makes billions and is devastating their top competitor geographically, ideologically, economically, and morally?

This is the rub. Maybe the news reports are true. Maybe China is ready to deal. Maybe the pain inflicted by Trump’s focused, high, unrelenting tariffs will change China’s mind, causing them to finally use their universal surveillance and technology to reduce illicit drug exports. But all new promises accounted for, count me a skeptic. Borrowing from Ronald Reagan, “Trust but verify.” 

Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).