Posted on Tuesday, January 7, 2025
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by AMAC, Robert B. Charles
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25 Comments
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Sometimes canoeing flat water, you hear rapids on the wind, maybe far off, maybe not so far off. A wise navigator plans. As Republicans squeaked Speaker Johnson out last week, we heard rapids. Even with Trump as President, expect rough water.
Only twice in American history has the US House been as closely divided as it is now – by five votes after the 2024 election, two following Congressman Gaetz (R-FL) resigning and assuming Congressmen Stefanik (R-NY) and Waltz (R-FL) accept positions in the Trump Administration.
That means, on the best day – assuming no deaths, illnesses, or resignations, – Republicans can only lose two votes if they have a five-vote margin, one if a three-vote margin, none if less.
In 1917, as WWI raged, the balance of seats in the US House was held by Democrats – with three progressives and a socialist. They had a one-vote margin. In 1931 Republicans stood at 218, Democrats 216, with one Farmer’s Party seat.
Under such circumstances, anything can happen – and fast. While Democrats held that 1917 majority by coalition and widened it in 1918, Republicans quickly lost their 1931 majority.
The Wilson Democrats held their slim margin in 1917, allowing Wilson to push his Progressive ideas, League of Nations, and other leftwing priorities, some racist.
On the other hand, Republicans quickly lost their two-seat majority in 1931, after three special elections, permitting Franklin Roosevelt to push socialist legislation.
Democrats held their US House majority – once they overpowered the 1931 Republicans – for the next 63 years, with brief breaks in 1946 and 1952, until Republicans launched the “Contract with America” in 1994, and flipped 52 seats.
The main point is – or at least should be – sobering: The Republican margin of control in the US House is highly tenuous at best, and could easily prove fleeting.
Even if Republicans maintain control for two years, the risk is high that they lose control in 2026, as mid-term cycles tend to cost the sitting president’s party.
So, what does that mean? Three things, all serious.
First, Republicans must recognize – as Democrats always have – that party discipline, conscious efforts at cohesion, and party unity – are vital. Without a commitment to party unity over personal agendas, the majority is meaningless.
Second, time is of the essence. Republicans could, on any given day, lose the majority and trifecta of the White House, Senate, and House. Every day should be D-Day, priority on speed in passing legislation that President Trump can sign.
Third, the next two years will be sobering. They leave little time for internal division. House Republicans must see “the perfect is the enemy of the good,” as Voltaire said. It is a “zero-sum game.” Democrats win if Republicans feud.
More could be written about how different the world might be if Democrats had not locked in control under Wilson in 1917 – or how different the 20th Century might have been if Republicans had not lost control in 1931.
But the main point, which needs nothing more, is simple: The nailbiter Speaker’s race last week, Trump-supporting Johnson and votes changed in the 11th hour, is prologue. We are soon in rapids. Republicans must prepare to pull together, to survive these rapids and beyond. Done right, we prevail; done wrong, we the House flips and we swamp.
Robert Charles is a former Assistant Secretary of State under Colin Powell, former Reagan and Bush 41 White House staffer, attorney, and naval intelligence officer (USNR). He wrote “Narcotics and Terrorism” (2003), “Eagles and Evergreens” (2018), and is National Spokesman for AMAC. Robert Charles has also just released an uplifting new book, “Cherish America: Stories of Courage, Character, and Kindness” (Tower Publishing, 2024).
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