The fragile peace between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan is unraveling at terrifying speed. After a terrorist attack in Kashmir left 26 dead last month, India has taken drastic measures — including cutting off water supplies to Pakistan — a move Islamabad calls an “act of war.” With both nations exchanging threats of military retaliation, the world watches nervously as the specter of nuclear conflict looms over South Asia.

Key points:

• India cuts water supply to Pakistan, escalating tensions after a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir.
• Pakistan warns of war, threatening “full spectrum” retaliation, including nuclear options.
• Indus Waters Treaty suspended for the first time in 60 years, risking agricultural collapse in Pakistan.
• Diplomatic ties severed, airspace closed, and military forces on high alert as both nations brace for conflict.

Water as a weapon: India’s unprecedented move

For decades, the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), brokered by the World Bank in 1960, has governed water-sharing between the two nations — even surviving multiple wars. But now, India has suspended the treaty, blocking water flow from the Baglihar Dam on the Chenab River and threatening to do the same at the Kishanganga Dam on the Jhelum.

Pakistan, already one of the world’s most water-stressed nations, relies on the Indus River for 80% of its agriculture. A prolonged blockade could devastate wheat, rice, and cotton production, triggering famine and economic collapse.

“Any attempt to usurp the water of the lower riparian, or to stop it, or to divert it, would be an act of war against Pakistan and would be responded to with… a full spectrum of power,” warned Pakistan’s ambassador to Russia, Muhammad Khalid Jamali, in an interview with RT.

The crisis erupted after the April 22 terrorist attack in Baisaran Valley, Kashmir, which India blames on Pakistan-backed militants. While The Resistance Front (linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba) initially claimed responsibility, Islamabad denies involvement, calling the attack a “false-flag operation” staged by India.

In response, New Delhi expelled Pakistani diplomats, closed borders, and suspended visas, while Islamabad retaliated by shutting airspace to Indian flights. The diplomatic freeze mirrors the tensions of 2019, when India revoked Kashmir’s autonomy, further straining relations.

Updates on the India-Pakistan situation:

Kashmir Terrorist Attack (April 22): A militant attack on an Indian paramilitary convoy in Kashmir left 26 people dead. The Resistance Front, believed to be linked to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, initially claimed responsibility, but Pakistan denies involvement. India holds Pakistan responsible indirectly for supporting cross-border terrorism.

Indian Response: India has taken several retaliatory measures, including:

• Expelling Pakistani diplomats and reducing staff at the Pakistani High Commission.
• Closing the land border with Pakistan.
• Suspending visa services for Pakistani nationals and advising Indians in Pakistan to return home.
• Suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, which could have severe implications for Pakistan’s agriculture and economy.

Pakistani Countermeasures: Pakistan responded by:

• Closing its airspace to Indian airlines and grounding Pakistani airlines over Indian airspace.
• Suspending the Samjhota Express train service and a bus service connecting the two countries.
• Warning that India’s water blockade constitutes an “act of war.”

Escalating Militarily:

• Both countries have engaged in border skirmishes, with Pakistani troops firing along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir.
• Pakistan has conducted large-scale military exercises (Hammer Strike) and warned of a “swift, resolute, and notch-up response” to any Indian attack.
• India launched counter-terrorism operations in Kashmir, and its defense minister granted the military “full operational freedom” for a response to the attack.

International Response:

• The international community has expressed concern over the escalating tensions, with the U.S. urging both countries to exercise restraint.
• The U.S. has offered to mediate, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio discussing the situation with both Indian and Pakistani counterparts.
• Pakistan’s ambassador to the U.S. has asked President Trump for help in easing tensions.

Potential Nuclear Confrontation: Both nations are nuclear-armed states, and the situation has raised fears of a nuclear conflict. Pakistan has warned of a “full spectrum” response if India follows through on its threat to block the rivers, which could lead to agricultural collapse in Pakistan.

Diplomatic Downgrade: Tensions have been high since 2019 when India revoked Kashmir’s autonomous status, further straining relations. The recent moves by both countries to downgrade diplomatic and trade ties suggest a heightened level of conflict.

The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation or de-escalation in the coming days. However, the possibility of full-blown military conflict, including the risk of nuclear war, cannot be ruled out. The international community is closely monitoring the situation and urging both countries to engage in dialogue and avoid further escalation.

Both nations are now mobilizing militarily, with Pakistan conducting “Hammer Strike” war games and India launching counter-terrorism operations across Kashmir. Pakistan’s Defense Minister has warned of an “imminent” Indian attack, vowing a “swift and resolute” response.

Meanwhile, the U.S. urges restraint, with Vice President J.D. Vance cautioning India against escalation. But with Pakistan’s army chief declaring “any military misadventure by India will be met with a notch-up response,” the risk of miscalculation grows by the hour.

History shows that water wars often precede full-blown conflicts. Will the Indus—once a symbol of cooperation—now become a river of fire? Or will cooler heads prevail before the unthinkable happens? As Pakistan’s envoy to the U.S. pleads for Trump’s intervention, one question remains: Is the world sleepwalking into another nuclear crisis?

Sources include:

RT.com

RT.com

Enoch, Brighteon.ai