Former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli
Six months out from New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, Republicans are showing some subtle but persistent signs of life in a contest once viewed as a safe hold for Democrats.
Conventional political wisdom suggests Democrats should have a solid edge in the race. New Jersey is, after all, a solidly blue state. Additionally, state-level candidates who are of the opposite party of the incumbent president tend to perform well in years following national elections – another plus for whoever emerges from the Democrat primary on June 10.
In the latest primary polling, Rep. Mikie Sherrill has a comfortable lead at 28 percent support in the six-candidate field. With 24 percent still undecided, however, former State Senate President Stephen Sweeney, Rep. Josh Gottheimer, former teachers union president Sean Spiller, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka all still have a realistic shot at the nomination.
Early voting has indeed tilted heavily Democrat so far. About 222,000 voters have already returned mail-in ballots for the primaries, and nearly three-quarters of those ballots came from Democrats, according to NJ Spotlight News.
But some curious electoral history and bubbling conservative grassroots momentum may give Republicans reason for optimism. Incumbent Governor Phil Murphy, who is term-limited, is finishing his second term in office. Since 1961, no party has managed to win the governorship three straight times.
New Jersey voter registration data from May also shows continued Republican gains, with the GOP 2,768 new registrations compared to 2,226 for Democrats. While Democrats still maintain a sizable lead with 2.45 million registered voters to the GOP’s 1.62 million, the gap is narrowing as the number of unaffiliated voters grows and Republicans steadily build momentum.
On the Republican ticket, former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli has emerged as the frontrunner in the race, with 44 percent support. Conservative radio host Bill Spadea trails at 18 percent. Ciattarelli was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2021, when he came within three points of defeating Murphy – part of a broader national backlash against Democrats that year.
This year, Ciattarelli’s campaign was boosted by a high-profile endorsement from President Donald Trump, which has energized the GOP base and helped Ciattarelli with both name recognition and fundraising.
Affordability remains the defining issue in the race, with both parties pitching plans to address the state’s high cost of living and tax burden. According to an Emerson poll, 45 percent of New Jersey voters named the economy – including taxes – as their top concern, followed by housing affordability.
Democrat candidates are doubling down on higher taxes and expanded government programs, proposing new income tax brackets for high earners and increased taxes on estates, luxury goods, and high-value property sales. Their plans include increasing government spending on benefits, rebates, and tax credits for targeted groups like seniors and low- to middle-income families.
While some liberal candidates have advocated for efficiency audits and targeted tax relief, their broader agenda centers on growing the role of the state government and shifting more of the tax burden upward. Yet, after eight years of Democrat leadership, it’s unclear whether voters are still willing to buy into these promises.
Seizing on Murphy’s recent tax hike plan, Republican candidates are focusing their campaigns on lowering taxes, cutting state spending, and reforming education. They have proposed a range of measures, including reducing income and property taxes, cutting “pork” projects from the budget, expanding programs for seniors, and consolidating tax brackets.
Republicans have also called for greater efficiency in government and changes to public school funding, ranging from taking over struggling city districts to promoting school choice and lowering corporate taxes.
Meanwhile, national issues like crime, inflation, and illegal immigration continue to shape voter attitudes. Ultimately, the election will hinge on which party can better energize its base and win over independents seeking change.
Trump’s performance in New Jersey in 2024 may be another sign that the state isn’t as out of reach for Republicans as Democrats would like to believe. After losing there by nearly 16 points in 2020, Trump narrowed that margin to just six points last year.
Trump’s gains among young and Hispanic voters in particular may signal rising frustration with Democrat leadership – and a potential opening for Republicans. Tapping into widespread dissatisfaction with New Jersey’s high cost of living and mobilizing disaffected suburban voters could lead to an upset similar to Governor Glenn Youngkin’s 2021 victory in Virginia.
New Jersey’s governor’s race is both a referendum on Murphy’s tenure and a test of the state’s political future. Though Democrats enter the fall with a strong party base, structural advantages, and a history of winning, Republicans can capitalize on economic anxiety and a more competitive national climate to make their case.
With more voters perhaps up for grabs than previously thought, the GOP might have a rare chance to flip a reliably blue seat. It will now be up to the Republican nominee and the state party apparatus to bring a convincing message to newly on-the-fence voters between now and November 4.
Sarah Katherine Sisk is a proud Hillsdale College alumna and a master’s student in economics at George Mason University. You can follow her on X @SKSisk76.
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