• Germany’s election marks a shift away from ambitious climate policies, with Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, poised to become the new chancellor and prioritize economic growth over environmental goals.
• This election is part of a broader trend across the Western world, with voters rejecting progressive climate policies in favor of economic pragmatism, leading to the ousting of green-championing incumbents in several countries.
• Under Chancellor Scholz, Germany set some of the world’s most ambitious climate targets, but these policies came at a cost, leading to economic stagnation and industrial decline.
• The backlash against green policies in Germany is particularly fierce, with the far-right AfD surging to second place in the election and blaming the Greens for the country’s economic struggles.
• The shift towards economic pragmatism reflects a need for climate policies to be economically sustainable, but it also poses a challenge for climate advocates, who must find a balance between environmental and economic realities.

Germany, once the global poster child for ambitious climate action, is now at the center of a political earthquake that could reshape not only its energy and economic policies but also the global fight against climate change. The recent election has signaled a dramatic shift in priorities, with voters rejecting the progressive climate policies of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition government. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is poised to become Germany’s next chancellor, promising to prioritize economic growth over what he calls an overzealous green agenda.

This election marks a turning point not just for Germany but for the broader Western world, as nations grapple with the economic and social costs of aggressive climate policies. From Austria to the United States, governments that championed green initiatives are being booted out of office, replaced by leaders who are more skeptical of the climate crusade.

The fall of Germany’s climate ambitions

Under Chancellor Scholz, Germany set some of the most ambitious climate targets in the world, aiming for “climate neutrality” by 2045—five years ahead of Britain’s net-zero target. The government rolled out sweeping policies, including mandates for electric vehicles, heat pumps and a €170 billion ($178.25 billion) fund for clean energy projects. Scholz’s coalition, which included the Greens, also accelerated the phaseout of coal power to 2030 and employed former Greenpeace executives in key climate roles.

But these policies came at a cost. The German economy, once the powerhouse of Europe, has stagnated. Industrial output has declined, and businesses report record levels of pessimism. The energy crisis triggered by Russia’s war in Ukraine exposed the vulnerabilities of Germany’s reliance on renewable energy and its hasty abandonment of nuclear power.

Friedrich Merz, the likely next chancellor, has made it clear that he intends to reverse course. “The German economic policy of recent years has been geared almost exclusively toward climate protection,” Merz said. “I want to say it clearly as I mean it: We will and we must change that.”

A global backlash against green policies

Germany’s election is part of a broader trend. Across the Western world, voters are rejecting progressive climate policies in favor of economic pragmatism. In Austria, Belgium, Ireland and the United States, incumbents who championed green agendas have been ousted. New Zealand, once a global leader in climate action, is now scrapping its climate goals, while Canada and Australia may soon follow suit.

“The global momentum for climate action shows signs of withering as nations struggle to balance economic self-interest and climate cooperation,” said Alice Hill, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

In Germany, the backlash has been particularly fierce. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which surged to second place in the election, openly denies the climate crisis and has labeled wind turbines “windmills of shame.” While Merz’s CDU has committed to climate neutrality by 2045, it has increasingly echoed the AfD’s rhetoric, blaming the Greens for Germany’s economic struggles and vowing to roll back regulations.

The economic imperative

Merz’s campaign focused heavily on reviving Germany’s industrial heartlands, which have been hit hard by high energy costs and bureaucratic burdens. “Moving forward, efforts to tackle global warming will be subordinate to economic growth,” Merz declared.

This shift reflects a broader realization that climate policies must be economically sustainable. Sven Giegold, a Green Party leader, conceded that Germany’s economic woes are not solely due to climate policies but are exacerbated by external factors like the energy crisis and declining exports to China and Russia.

However, Merz’s critics argue that his rhetoric is politically motivated. “That’s politicking,” Giegold said. “Everybody who is reasonable knows that the crisis of the German economy is not because of the climate policies, but because of our sudden change in energy prices.”

What’s next for Germany and the world?

The election results have left Germany at a crossroads. While Merz is unlikely to completely abandon climate goals, his administration is expected to prioritize economic recovery over green initiatives. This could mean loosening regulations, delaying the phaseout of combustion engines and decoupling the economy and climate ministries—a move that would strip the Greens of significant influence.

The implications extend far beyond Germany. As Europe’s largest economy, Germany has long been a driving force behind the European Union’s Green Deal. A shift in Berlin could embolden other EU member states, such as Poland and France, to push back against Brussels’ climate agenda.

“Germany can act as an engine for Europe, helping forge a path towards security and resilience,” said Manon Dufour, head of the Brussels branch of climate think tank E3G. “It can also act as a brake, bringing it to a standstill.”

A warning for climate advocates

Germany’s election serves as a stark reminder that climate policies must be economically viable to gain public support. While the urgency of addressing climate change remains undeniable, the backlash against green policies highlights the need for a balanced approach that considers both environmental and economic realities.

As Friedrich Merz prepares to take the reins, the world will be watching to see whether Germany can reconcile its industrial ambitions with its climate commitments — or whether the end of its climate crusade marks the beginning of a new era of economic pragmatism.

For now, one thing is clear: The green wave that swept Europe just a few years ago has receded, leaving in its wake a more complex and contentious political landscape.

Sources include:

ClimateDepot.com

Politico.com

TheGuardian.com

Bloomberg.com