A striking pattern has emerged in the first few months of President Donald Trump’s second term: job numbers are being revised upward – a quiet but telling reversal from the trends we saw under President Joe Biden, whose administration consistently saw job numbers revised downward after initial release.
The past two months are indicative of this trend. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) initially reported 139,000 new jobs in May. That number was later bumped up to 144,000, an increase of 5,000. April’s total was also revised upward by 11,000 to 158,000. With June’s gain of 147,000 jobs, the three-month average now sits at a steady 150,000.
While these aren’t eye-popping figures, the direction of the revisions tells an important story – particularly when compared to what we saw under President Joe Biden.
In the build-up to Biden’s re-election bid, the initial jobs numbers were overstated by an astonishing amount. For 10 straight months in 2023, BLS revised its job creation estimates downward. In June 2023, for example, the government originally reported 209,000 new jobs. That figure was later cut nearly in half, to 105,000.
Overall, from March 2023 to March 2024, BLS overstated job growth by a jaw-dropping 818,000 – an average of more than 68,000 jobs per month. For context, that’s five times the agency’s typical margin of error.
That discrepancy reeks of corruption – rewriting the story after it’s already dominated the news. Those errors were only acknowledged months later, long after they had already shaped headlines and campaign speeches.
So why does this matter?
Because that first jobs number is the one that matters most. It’s the figure the corporate press runs with. It makes the headlines. It shapes public opinion. It drives market expectations and is baked into campaign messaging within hours. The BLS may quietly post a revision weeks later, but by then, the political spin cycle has moved on. Very few outlets ever update their coverage or correct the narrative.
That time lag between the first release and the revision creates a powerful advantage for an administration looking to artificially boost its economic standing. And that’s exactly what the Biden White House appeared to do.
To be sure, some fluctuation in job estimates is normal. The BLS uses surveys and models, and revisions are expected. But the degree and direction of the revisions matter. The Biden-era pattern of consistent overstatement followed by major downward revisions was anything but normal.
Is it possible that BLS officials are now intentionally underreporting Trump’s job gains, only to revise them up later to avoid giving him early political wins? Maybe – but that remains speculative. What’s perhaps more likely is that we’re simply witnessing a return to normalcy: initial estimates that are slightly adjusted as more data rolls in.
But if that’s the case, then it only further underscores just how abnormal the Biden years really were.
Even the Federal Reserve took notice of this trend under Biden. In June 2024, Fed Chair Jerome Powell openly acknowledged that official job numbers “may be a bit overstated.” That’s Fed-speak for, “we don’t believe the data.” And when the central bank can’t trust the numbers, the economy suffers. Overstated jobs data likely contributed to the Fed holding interest rates too high for too long, hurting consumers and businesses alike.
Congress also noticed. House Budget Committee Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) described the revisions as proof of a “much weaker Biden-Harris economy than we were led to believe,” adding that the false narrative was built on a “failed tax, spend, and regulate agenda.”
Some analysts, like columnist Liz Peek, pointed to a methodological flaw, suggesting that Biden’s job numbers were inflated by double-counting multiple jobholders. The result, Peek writes, was job numbers propped up by “overworked Americans trying to navigate the Biden-Harris inflation tsunami.”
This kind of statistical trickery wasn’t limited to the job market. As AMAC Newsline reported at the time, the Biden administration consistently manipulated data across the board – from crime stats to border enforcement and inflation reports. The goal was to paint a rosy picture to boost Biden’s re-election prospects, regardless of reality.
Even as cities burned, crime spiked, and the border collapsed, the Biden White House massaged the numbers to make it all seem under control.
When bureaucrats abandon objectivity to serve political ends, the credibility of the entire system collapses. Economic data should be boring – but it should also be honest. When it becomes a weapon in partisan messaging, everyone loses.
That’s why Trump’s election was so important. His promised not just to change policies, but to restore integrity. Under Trump, job numbers aren’t inflated for short-term political gain. They’re reported cautiously, then revised upward when justified. That’s how it’s supposed to work.
And that’s how you start to rebuild public trust – slowly, with transparency and honesty.
In an election year, the stakes are high. Americans deserve real numbers, not narrative-driven fiction. The Trump administration is delivering real economic victories for working families, but it’s most important legacy may be restoring integrity to the reporting mechanisms that Americans rely on to gauge the health of the economy – something that was sorely lacking under Joe Biden.
Sarah Katherine Sisk is a proud Hillsdale College alumna and a master’s student in economics at George Mason University. You can follow her on X @SKSisk76.
Read full article here