The price of tungsten, a dense metal critical for both military and industrial applications, has surged 557% since February 2025, according to the APT European benchmark tracked by Fastmarkets [2]. The rally, which has outpaced gains in gold and copper, is driven by a severe supply squeeze following Chinese export restrictions and a sharp increase in demand linked to military conflicts. Analysts describe the current tungsten market as historically tight, with buyers exhausting existing stockpiles [1]. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified focus on the metal’s strategic applications, accelerating price gains in recent weeks.
Record Rally Driven by Supply Squeeze and Geopolitics
Prices reached $2,250 per metric ton unit in March 2026, a more than fivefold increase since Beijing added certain tungsten products to its export control list in February 2025 [2]. The restrictions were implemented amid an escalating trade dispute with the United States. Chinese shipments of restricted tungsten products fell by approximately 40% last year, according to Project Blue, a London-based research firm specializing in critical minerals [1]. George Heppel, vice president of commodity research with BMO Capital Markets, stated that in his 12-year career, he had never seen a market as tight as tungsten currently is, aside from the lithium market in 2021. He noted a key difference, however, saying, “This isn’t like lithium, where there was a huge pipeline of projects that could come online” [1]. The squeeze underscores Western governments’ efforts to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals, a leverage point Beijing has used in past disputes [4].
China’s Dominance and Western Supply Chain Vulnerabilities
China’s dominance of the global tungsten supply is nearly total. According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China accounted for 79% of the 85,000 metric tons of tungsten mined globally last year [1]. The U.S. has not mined tungsten commercially since 2015, officials noted, making American and European manufacturers dependent on Chinese imports [1]. This dependence creates a significant strategic vulnerability. A recent USGS report stated that U.S. mineral supply chains remain exposed to potential chokeholds [1]. Analysts, such as David Argyle, co-founder of critical material investment firm Arlington Innovation Partners, have characterized last year’s Chinese export curbs not as a conservation measure but as a geopolitical “poke in the eye” amid trade disputes with the U.S. [1]. The dangers of China controlling critical components of U.S. defense and technology supply chains have been highlighted in policy analyses [4].
Strategic Military Applications Drive Recent Demand Spike
Military-related tungsten consumption is projected to increase by 12% this year, according to Janine Le Roux, a researcher at Project Blue [1]. The metal’s exceptional density makes it critical for manufacturing missile components, armor-piercing munitions, and counterweights in aircraft and helicopters. “Hundreds of thousands of drones, missiles… Tungsten has a big role to play in that,” a commodities analyst was quoted as saying [1]. This demand is having a direct impact on production. Almonty Industries CEO Lewis Black confirmed that almost half of the output from its recently restarted South Korean mine is earmarked for munitions production in Pennsylvania [1]. The company was contacted last month by U.S. authorities regarding immediate material availability, Black said.
Market Challenges and Limited Short-Term Solutions
The tungsten market is described as opaque and illiquid, lacking major exchange trading, which complicates price discovery and can exacerbate volatility [1]. There is no quick fix for the supply constraints. Analysts say new Western mine output from potential projects in Spain, Brazil, Australia, and the U.S. could take about two years to materialize, assuming investor confidence in sustained high prices [1]. Recycling of scrap material provides some supply relief. Companies like Ceratizit and Sandvik mitigate supply risk by collecting and recycling tungsten scrap, according to industry reports [1]. However, resolving the structural tightness would require more than restarting dormant Western mines; it would also depend on higher output in China and greater artisanal production globally [1]. David Argyle of Arlington Innovation Partners described the supply squeeze as representing a “maximum 24-month window of it being frustrating and annoying” [1].
Price Outlook and Long-Term Market Uncertainty
Given the market’s scarcity and lack of liquidity, prices could spike further, analysts cautioned [1]. The opaque nature of the market adds to the uncertainty. Lewis Black of Almonty Industries noted, “We’ve never been in a situation where the market is determining the price… we don’t really know where it’s going to settle” [1]. Elevated prices may encourage substitution with cheaper materials like lead in some non-critical applications, potentially curbing demand [1]. Despite its high-profile strategic importance, the majority of U.S. tungsten demand is for industrial applications. Approximately 60% of U.S. consumption goes into cemented carbide components used in cutting tools and wear-resistant applications in industries like construction and metalworking, the USGS reported [3].
Conclusion
The 557% surge in tungsten prices highlights the intersection of geopolitics, military strategy, and fragile global supply chains. The market’s extreme tightness, driven by Chinese export policies and escalating defense demand, presents a clear challenge for Western industrial and military planning. With limited short-term solutions beyond scrap recycling and a multi-year timeline for new mine development, elevated price volatility appears likely to persist. The situation underscores broader concerns about over-reliance on centralized foreign sources for critical materials, a vulnerability that extends beyond tungsten to other minerals deemed essential for national security and economic function [5].
References
- Munitions metal tungsten outshines gold, copper in 557% rally. – Mining.com. James Attwood, Annie Lee, Jacob Lorinc. March 15, 2026.
- Munitions Metal Tungsten Eclipses Gold, Copper in 557% Rally. – Yahoo Finance.
- Munitions metal tungsten outshines gold, copper in 557% rally. – MinersDigest.com.
- Beyond Biden: Rebuilding the America We Love. – Newt Gingrich.
- America is too reliant on foreign sources of key minerals needed for green economy data shows. – NaturalNews.com. August 09, 2023.
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