• Axial Seamount, a 3,600-foot-tall underwater volcano located 300 miles off Oregon’s coast, is showing signs of an impending eruption, with a forecast window between July 2024 and the end of 2025.
• Axial Seamount is one of the most monitored underwater volcanoes, with advanced tools tracking seismic activity, seafloor deformation and magma buildup.
• Its predictability allows scientists to refine eruption forecasting techniques, which could be applied to more hazardous volcanoes globally, potentially saving lives and reducing disaster risks.
• As a shield volcano, Axial Seamount typically has non-explosive eruptions, making it an ideal natural laboratory for studying volcanic activity and developing tools to analyze earthquake patterns and detect early warning signs.
• Research on Axial Seamount could help improve scientists’ ability to forecast eruptions months or years in advance, ultimately protecting lives and infrastructure.

Deep beneath the waves of the Pacific Ocean, about 300 miles off the coast of Oregon, a massive underwater volcano is showing signs of activity that could lead to an eruption by 2025. Known as Axial Seamount, this 3,600-foot-tall volcano is one of the most active undersea volcanoes in the world — and it’s giving scientists a rare opportunity to study the warning signs of an eruption in real time.

While Axial Seamount poses little direct threat to humans, its potential eruption is a stark reminder of the importance of monitoring underwater volcanoes.

The lessons learned from Axial Seamount could help scientists predict more dangerous eruptions in the future, potentially saving lives and preventing catastrophic damage.

Axial Seamount is no stranger to eruptions. It last erupted in 2015, and before that in 2011 and 1998.

Scientists have been closely monitoring the volcano since the 1990s, using a network of advanced tools to track its every move. These tools measure everything from seismic activity to seafloor swelling, providing a wealth of data that has allowed researchers to predict eruptions with surprising accuracy.

In late 2023, scientists noticed a troubling pattern: The volcano’s surface had begun to swell, reaching nearly the same level it did before its 2015 eruption. This swelling, caused by magma building up beneath the surface, is a key indicator that an eruption could be imminent.

At the same time, seismic activity around the volcano has increased dramatically, with hundreds of earthquakes occurring daily.

Researchers who conducted the recent study advised that, based on the current trends and “the assumption that Axial will be primed to erupt when it reaches the 2015 inflation threshold,” their current eruption forecast window is “between now (July 2024) and the end of 2025.”

It’s worth noting that this level of precision in forecasting is rare, especially for underwater volcanoes, and it highlights the importance of the extensive monitoring efforts at Axial Seamount.

Why Axial Seamount matters

Axial Seamount is a shield volcano, a type of volcano that does not usually have explosive eruptions.

Unlike explosive volcanoes like Mount St. Helens, Axial Seamount’s eruptions are unlikely to cause tsunamis or significant earthquakes. This makes it an ideal natural laboratory for scientists studying volcanic activity.

The volcano’s predictability is another reason it is so valuable to researchers. By studying Axial Seamount, scientists have been able to develop tools and techniques for forecasting eruptions that could be applied to more dangerous volcanoes around the world.

For example, researchers have used artificial intelligence to analyze earthquake patterns before the 2015 eruption, identifying specific signals that could serve as early warning signs in the future.

While forecasting “is difficult,” William Chadwick, a geophysicist, has acknowledged that Axial Seamount allows him and other researchers to test their methods. The data collected from Axial could one day help predict eruptions from more hazardous volcanoes, such as those that triggered devastating tsunamis in the past.

While Axial Seamount itself may not pose a direct threat, its activity serves as a reminder of the power and unpredictability of underwater volcanoes.

In January 2022, the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano in the South Pacific sent shockwaves around the world, triggering a tsunami that caused billions of dollars in damage and affected coastal communities as far away as California and Japan.

Unlike Hunga Tonga, Axial Seamount is unlikely to cause such widespread destruction. However, the lessons learned from monitoring its activity could be crucial in preparing for future eruptions from more dangerous volcanoes. (Related: Volcanoes beneath ice in Antarctica could erupt and leave the planet “uninhabitable,” warn researchers.)

The importance of preparation

The ability to predict volcanic eruptions with months or even years of advance notice is a game-changer for disaster preparedness. While Axial Seamount’s eruptions are relatively benign, the same cannot be said for other underwater volcanoes.

By studying Axial Seamount, scientists hope to develop better tools for detecting early warning signs, such as changes in seismic activity, gas emissions and seafloor deformation. This research could also help governments and emergency responders plan for potential disasters.

For example, if a more dangerous underwater volcano were to show signs of an impending eruption, scientists could use the data from Axial Seamount to issue timely warnings, giving coastal communities time to evacuate and prepare.

As Axial Seamount continues to swell and rumble, scientists are keeping a close eye on its activity. The volcano’s next eruption, whenever it occurs, will provide yet another opportunity to refine forecasting techniques and deepen understanding of these powerful geological forces.

Visit Ecology.news for more related stories.

Watch the video below to learn more about geoengineering and Axial Seamount’s possible eruption by 2025.

This video is from the Alex Hammer channel on Brighteon.com.

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Sources include:

DailyMail.co.uk

Axial.CEOAS.OregonState.edu

ScienceNews.org

Brighteon.com