Back to normal: Used car prices expected to rise at historically stable pace in 2026
- Used vehicle wholesale prices are forecast to rise about 2% by the end of 2026, signaling a return to historically normal market conditions after pandemic-driven volatility.
- Following dramatic swings in 2020–2022, the market is settling, with moderate price growth and month-to-month changes averaging around 0.2%.
- Trucks and SUVs remain in high demand, while more off-lease vehicles are returning to the market, supporting overall price stability.
- Increased availability of used EVs may soften prices in that segment, creating potential bargains for buyers.
- Total used vehicle sales are expected to dip slightly (around 0.9%), but lower auto loan rates and upcoming tax refunds could boost consumer purchasing power and support steady demand.
Prices of used vehicles are expected to rise modestly this year, continuing a return to more normal market conditions after years of pandemic-driven volatility.
According to a new forecast from auto data and insights firm Cox Automotive, wholesale prices measured by its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) are expected to end 2026 about 2% higher than in December 2025. The index tracks prices of used vehicles sold at Cox’s U.S. wholesale auto auctions and is widely seen as a leading indicator for retail pricing.
If the forecast holds, the increase would mark a continuation of relatively stable pricing following gains of about 0.4% in each of the past two years. That contrasts sharply with the dramatic swings seen earlier in the decade, when prices surged 46.6% in 2021 and 14.2% in 2020 amid pandemic-related supply shortages, before falling 15% in 2022 and 7% in 2023 as conditions normalized.
The projected stability is good news for car shoppers, Cox said, though prices remain elevated compared with pre-pandemic levels. Retail used vehicle prices typically track wholesale movements, but they have been slower to decline in recent years, keeping costs higher for consumers.
Historically, used vehicle prices tend to rise by about 2% by the end of each year, based on Cox data dating back to 1998, excluding the unusual market conditions of 2021 and 2022. Month-to-month changes are generally small, with a typical movement of around 0.2%, though prices can fluctuate due to seasonal trends and shifts in demand.
“As we move into 2026, a few positive indicators are emerging,” Jeremy Robb, interim chief economist at Cox Automotive, said in a statement. He pointed to auto loan rates for both new and used vehicles falling to their lowest level in a year, as well as the prospect of larger tax refunds boosting consumer spending power. “As this plays out, we are expecting to see stronger demand in the auto market as the year gets underway,” Robb said.
Despite improving affordability signals, Cox expects overall used vehicle sales to dip slightly. Total used vehicle sales are forecast to fall 0.9% year over year to 38.3 million units in 2026, including 20.3 million retail sales, a decline of 0.7%.
Cox said the market appears to be settling into a more predictable pattern, with moderate price growth and steady demand replacing the extreme volatility seen during and immediately after the pandemic.
Strong supply and demand are driving an increase in used vehicle values
BrightU.AI‘s Enoch engine defines a used automotive vehicle as a pre-owned automobile that has been previously owned and driven by one or more individuals. These vehicles are typically sold by private owners, dealerships or through online marketplaces, and they often come with a history of use, which can vary widely in terms of condition, mileage and maintenance.
Several factors are supporting used vehicle values.
Demand remains solid, particularly for trucks and sport utility vehicles, which continue to attract buyers seeking versatility and space. At the same time, supply is gradually improving as more off-lease vehicles, especially newer models with lower mileage, return to the market after leasing activity picked up several years ago.
Electric vehicles represent a notable exception. As more used EVs enter the market due to expiring leases and early adopters upgrading, prices in that segment may soften, potentially creating opportunities for buyers interested in lower-cost electric options.
Broader economic conditions are also influencing the outlook. Auto loan rates for both new and used vehicles have declined from recent highs, easing monthly payment pressures for financed purchases. In addition, tax refunds early in the year could provide a short-term boost to consumer demand.
Despite these factors, total used vehicle sales are expected to dip slightly. Overall, analysts say 2026 is shaping up as a year of normalization for the used car market.
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Sources include:
TheEpochTimes.com
Coxautoinc.com
Capwolf.com
CNBC.com
BrightU.ai
Brighteon.com
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