Posted on Friday, October 17, 2025
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by Alan Jamison
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New polling this week has revealed that high-profile statewide races in Virginia are currently tossups, including the contests for governor and attorney general. After Democrats held healthy leads earlier this year, a scandal has rocked the Commonwealth and put the election back in play for Republicans.
Polling companies Trafalgar Group and InsiderAdvantage surveyed likely general election voters in Virginia on who they would support in the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general races. In the gubernatorial election, former Democrat Rep. Abigail Spanberger had a slight lead over Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears at 47.5 percent to 45.3 percent – a statistical tie, with the poll having a 2.9 percent margin of error.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Democrat state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi only led Republican candidate John Reid 46.2 percent to 46.1 percent – another statistical tie. Hashmi has notably refused to debate Reid, despite Reid proposing as many as 10 debates.
The attorney general race has flipped completely from just a few weeks ago, with Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares now leading former Del. Jay Jones 49.5 percent to 44.6 percent. Miyares is now a strong favorite to win the race, as Jones is embroiled in multiple scandals that have hampered his candidacy and now appear to be trickling up to the other Democrat candidates on the ticket.
Earlier this month, National Review revealed text messages from Jones to Republican Del. Carrie Coyner stating that he would like to “piss on the graves” of his Republican opponents and fantasizing about shooting former Republican Virginia House Speaker Todd Gilbert. He specifically stated that if he had two bullets and had a choice to shoot Gilbert, Adolf Hitler, or Pol Pot, Gilbert “receives both bullets.”
Despite pleas from Coyner to stop, Jones then stated that he hoped Gilbert’s children would die in their mother’s arms because “only when people feel pain personally do they move on policy.”
President Donald Trump published a statement on Truth Social about the scandal. “It has just come out that the Radical Left Lunatic, Jay Jones, who is running against Jason Miyares, the GREAT Attorney General in Virginia, made SICK and DEMENTED jokes, if they were jokes at all, which were not funny, and that he wrote down and sent around to people, concerning the murdering of a Republican Legislator, his wife, and their children,” the President said. He then called for Jones to drop out of the race.
Following the release of that story, Coyner alleged that Jones also told her over the phone that it would be a good thing if more police officers were killed in the line of duty because they would shoot fewer civilians. Multiple law enforcement groups have called on Jones to drop out of the race following those revelations.
Jones is also mired in controversy stemming from a 2022 reckless driving charge for speeding 116 mph down a Virginia freeway. Despite the fact that other Virginians received jail time for similar charges, Jones escaped with only community service. He then told the court that he performed 500 hours of community service in a single year to his own political action committee – an apparent ethical violation that he has yet to apologize for.
While InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group are two of the most accurate pollsters, they are not the only polling groups showing Miyares in the lead. The polling group Cygnal had Miyares leading Jones last week in a poll 46 percent to 44 percent.
There is a real possibility that Jones is now dragging down the state’s other Democrat candidates. Spanberger led by as many as 12 points in some polls just before the Jay Jones text message scandal broke. In the two polls since that story went viral, she led by just three points – within the margin of error.
Miyares and Jones had their only scheduled debate this past Thursday. Jones apologized for his texts and stated that he was “ashamed’ and “embarrassed” – but stopped short of saying he would withdraw from the race. Jones tried to make the debate about Trump and attacked the President throughout the night. In return, Miyares hit Jones for being weak on crime and for his support for allowing biological men to compete in women’s sports. Miyares also hit Jones for his violent rhetoric.
“How can anybody who’s ever worked in any of the crimes against children, all of the areas of federal and state local law enforcement, how can they ever take you seriously, be the top prosecutor, knowing your view that children should die to advance a political agenda?” Miyares asked in the debate. “It’s unconscionable, and if you were truly sorry, you would not be running for this office because you disqualified yourself.”
As Miyares also noted, Jones has never tried a case in court and would likely not even be able to pass a background check to be a prosecutor.
Spanberger and Earle-Sears just had their only debate on October 9. Jones’ texts were a major topic of discussion there as well, with Spanberger refusing to say he should drop out of his race. Earle-Sears slammed Spanberger for her silence on the matter, asking her how she would feel if it were her children that Jones said he wished would die in her arms.
“That’s why I’m wondering why my opponent won’t say beyond it’s abhorrent and disgusting, why she won’t say it is not okay, and that he must leave the race because Jay Jones advocated the murder, Abigail, the murder of a man – a former speaker – as well as his children who are two and five years old,” Earle-Sears said. “You have little girls. Would it take him pulling the trigger? Is that what would do it and then you would say he needs to get out of the race, Abigail?”
With just over two weeks to go, Republicans appear to have all the momentum in the Old Dominion. The question now is – if the polls are accurate – whether the GOP candidates have enough time to fully close the gap that opened up this summer and emerge victorious on November 4.
Alan Jamison is the pen name of a political writer with extensive experience writing for several notable politicians and news outlets.
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