Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign is in a superior better position now – far better, based on the polling and a survey of all the available evidence — than in his previous two victorious presidential runs. The momentum is undeniably behind him at this juncture, where he presently leads in each one of the seven critical battleground states, according to Real Clear Politics’ aggregated average. To put matters into perspective, the 45th President would only need to win 3 or 4 of these states to take home the ultimate prize; a clean sweep would mean a landslide, including an electoral college victory that surpasses what he amassed in 2016. More to the point, it would also mean other states that have not been considered battlegrounds this cycle – like Virginia, New Hampshire, and Tim Walz’s own Minnesota – as potentially within reach. Finally, if current trends hold, Donald Trump would almost certainly win the popular vote (where he is an underdog, given how many foreigners have been imported over the last few decades to keep states like California solidly blue), meaning that the race would quite literally be “too big to rig.”
Winning the popular vote to complement the electoral vote, where President Trump is currently polling in a formidable position, would come with other advantages. One, it would mitigate the harms from counter-lawfare by Leftist groups. These counter-lawfare efforts include official ones, sanctioned by the regime itself, such as by Merrick Garland, who just launched an “Election Threat Task Force” this week to clamp down on conservative measures to simply guard the vote from illegal subversion. Official efforts extend to state prosecutors like Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis, who operate as effective satellite lawfare groups, part of the broader cartel of weaponized justice brought to you by the Biden-Harris regime. A Trump victory would almost certainly knock the wind out of all these bogus cases, sending these communist prosecutors to the hills for good.
Moreover, a Trump popular and electoral vote combo would give the president a much-deserved mandate by the American people, granting him the political capital to govern however he pleases, allowing him to make mincemeat of Washington’s trenchant Swamp. As it stands, the Swamp is terrified of President Trump’s return to the Oval Office. Every attempt thus far to thwart his campaign, however, has only energized the grassroots and propelled President Trump’s prospects to newer and greater heights. As of this writing, the President currently leads by a whopping 20% points on major election prediction markets. On Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, the President leads by over 30 points. This lead includes a full sweep of the seven critical battlegrounds – Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. The closest of these states is Wisconsin, where the President commands a 16-point lead over Kamala Harris. In every other battleground, the President’s margins are 20 points or higher.
On Kalshi, another prediction market that is unique for being the only platform so far to let American citizens directly place bets because of a recent court decision, the President’s leads are equally sizable. He commands a 20-point overall advantage in the national race, which includes significant leads in each one of the seven aforementioned battleground states.
Because of this momentum, Republicans are now favorites to win not just the Presidency, but the House and Senate as well. Polymarket’s odds of Republicans sweeping both houses of Congress are the highest they have been since Joe Biden’s unceremonious ouster. The odds place them at almost 50%, leading any other outcome scenario by at least 20 percentage points. Polymarket also has Republicans being likeliest to win all three branches of government, with the Presidency at 66%, the Senate at 84%, and the House at 51%. If President Trump were re-elected and Republicans controlled both houses of Congress, he would have tremendous discretion to successfully implement his legislative agenda and turn the page on the nightmare that has been the last four years, once and for all.
According to the Economist, which is nobody’s idea of a right-leaning outlet, Donald Trump is currently the favorite to win the presidential election. Their forecast has the president leading in 5 of the 7 battlegrounds (all but Nevada and Michigan, two outliers based on other polls), and within the margin of error for the remaining two. This is corroborated by friendlier and more accurate pollsters as well. Rasmussen, a pollster with a rigorous methodology, has President Trump leading nationally, and in most of the key battlegrounds. Meanwhile, in Gallup’s poll – President Trump is viewed more favorably than unfavorably, which would be the first time he has polled with a positive favorability rating on Election Day (he was at -16 at this juncture in 2020). Kamala Harris has a net unfavorability rating, and overwhelmingly voters trust President Trump far more to deliver positive results on the economy and immigration, the top two issues this election cycle, than Kamala Harris, who polls negatively on both issues.
Kamala’s campaign has been riddled by bad luck and bad karma, exacerbated by her countless blunders. A day after she incredulously called Donald Trump “exhausted” – despite his relentless pace (he is slated to make appearances in Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania this week alone, before heading to the Big Apple on Sunday), Kamala decided to take the day off. Despite being almost twenty years Donald Trump’s junior, it’s apparently too much for her to campaign every day in these last two weeks of this grueling cycle (despite waging the shortest presidential campaign in memory). Mental health days are in order for the would-be Commander-In-Woke.
And despite having billions of dollars behind her, Donald Trump’s ground game in the all-important battlegrounds has been phenomenal. The importance of this cannot be overstated: as Elon Musk recently said, the Democrats have over ninety percent of the legacy media, Hollywood celebrities, Silicon Valley, Wall Street, and massive institutional support on their side, from both the government itself, combined with NGOs. Despite dealing with conditions that normally would make it impossible for any Republican challenger to mount a viable candidacy, let alone win, Donald Trump, miraculously, is in the lead.
The momentum shift observed throughout the polls is also reflected on the ground. In Pennsylvania’s Luzerne County, for example, as reported by Scott Presler, in 2020 Republicans suffered from a deficit of nearly 20,000 registered voters to Democrats (86,369 to 106,361). Four years later, Republicans outright led Democratic registrants in that county by 1,886 (90,000 to 88,114), an incredible turnaround in a state that was decided by a mere 80,000 or so votes. In North Carolina, Democrats originally had a 5.7 advantage in early voting, an advantage that has shrunk to a measly 1.4 points four years later. In Arizona, Republicans currently have an advantage of 34,000 votes in the early voting returns (214,915 versus 180,796) – or an 18% return rate against the Democrats’ 16.8%. Finally, in Nevada, Republicans now lead the early vote, with mail included (96,858 versus 88,983) – all unprecedented in a presidential year.
All of which is to say, things are looking pretty good two weeks out from Election Day. It is also to reiterate that Democrats were to pull any shenanigans this cycle – the idea that Kamala could win, based on the data we have received, is frankly, preposterous. In other words, the only way she wins is by cheating – or the same undemocratic schemes that were responsible, ultimately, for her installation as her party’s nominee this year, and as the vice president four years before that. But the strategy of making this race too big to rig is returning dividends; it is therefore incumbent upon the rest of us to see to it that President Trump crosses the finish line, in a clean and fair race – where fraud and illegitimacy is reduced to a minimum.
In conclusion, make sure you vote early – and be sure that every member of your family votes as well (especially if they live in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, or Nevada).
Find out about where to vote at swampthevoteusa.com – and volunteer in either your state or even better, a nearby battleground state, if you can afford to do so. This is a collective effort, and it is only through everyone’s participation in this process, and exercising their patriotic duties, that Donald Trump will be re-elected president less than two weeks from now.
Paul Ingrassia, a graduate of Fordham University and Cornell Law School, is an Attorney; Communications Director of the NCLU; a two-time Claremont Fellow, and is on the Board of Advisors of the NYYR Club and the Italian American Civil Rights League. He writes a widely read Substack that is regularly posted on Truth Social by President Trump. Follow Paul on X @PaulIngrassia, Substack, Truth Social, Instagram, and Rumble.
The opinions expressed by columnists are their own and do not necessarily represent the views of AMAC or AMAC Action.
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