Posted on Thursday, November 7, 2024

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by Aaron Flanigan

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Following Donald Trump’s historic victory on Tuesday night that brought with it a GOP Senate majority, another upcoming election has taken on an added degree of importance – the race to replace Mitch McConnell as the Republican leader in the Senate.

McConnell announced earlier this year that he would step down as leader after 17 years atop the Republican Senate Caucus, setting up a secret ballot election on November 13 to replace him. Whoever takes on the role will be in prime position to become Senate Majority Leader next January and play a critical role in working with Trump to enact key parts of his agenda, including tax cuts and securing the border.

Three names have emerged as the most likely candidates for the post – John Thune of South Dakota, John Cornyn of Texas, and Rick Scott of Florida. While Thune and Cornyn entered the race almost immediately following McConnell’s retirement announcement in February, Scott entered the arena in late May, sending a lightning rod into what was otherwise seen as an unexciting contest.

Thune, a fourth-term senator and the current Senate Republican Whip, enjoys close relationships with a number of old-guard Republicans, and has called the leadership race a chance for a “reset.” Cornyn, meanwhile, is an expert political operator as the fourth-longest tenured Republican. He has also developed a reputation as a prolific fundraiser – something which could go far with his Senate colleagues.

For much of the race, Scott – who just cruised to a 13-point re-election victory – has been considered a slight favorite due in large part to his ties to Trump. “Scott,” ABC News recently reported, “is a longtime friend of Trump’s and has positioned himself as a strong ally. Scott traveled to New York to support Trump during Trump’s hush money trial. Trump could endorse Scott in the contest, potentially winning more votes for the Florida senator or giving him leverage to influence the race.”

Thus far, Scott has received support from a handful of key conservative leaders, including former presidential candidate and top Trump surrogate Vivek Ramaswamy.

“Rick Scott is *BY FAR* the best choice among those running for Senate Republican Leader,” Ramaswamy wrote on X. “He also possesses a very rare quality in DC: caring about what voters actually want. I endorse him.”

Though most other Republican senators have stopped short of issuing a formal endorsement, Scott has received words of encouragement from several of his colleagues. Mike Lee (R-UT) referred to Scott’s entry into the race as a “gamechanger,” praising his “positive, aspirational agenda” that represents the party’s legislative goals.

Other members of the Senate’s conservative wing reacted similarly. “I couldn’t agree more,” Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI) shared in response to Lee’s comments. More formal endorsements could come in the days ahead now that the election is over and control of the Senate has been determined.

Predictably, Scott’s momentum in the race has invited backlash from some McConnell allies, who see a prospective Scott victory as a stark departure from the McConnell legislative legacy, which many conservatives deride as being overly deferential to liberals and the Biden-Harris administration.

Following McConnell’s long streak of bitter clashes with Donald Trump and other MAGA-aligned Republicans, many figures within the emerging “new right” coalition of the conservative movement view McConnell’s exit—and next week’s leadership race—as a long-overdue opportunity to usher the old guard GOP establishment out the door.

Following Trump’s victory, an endorsement from the president-elect would likely be the deciding factor in the race, although he could also choose to not make an official endorsement. Prior to Scott’s entry into the race, Trump had encouraged Senator Steve Daines (R-MT) to vie for the job. Daines, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, declined to run, instead pledging to focus his time and energy on ensuring Republicans won a Senate majority – which they did in resounding fashion.

Whoever wins the post, it will be of vital importance that the Senate GOP remains united on key legislation, particularly if Republicans win control of the House (votes are still being counted in dozens of races). Democrats were able to pass sweeping legislation during Biden’s first two years because they were united – the GOP will have to be equally united to undo that damage.

Ultimately, what matters most is that the next GOP Senate leader is committed to Trump’s America First agenda. The center of gravity in the caucus has shifted away from the old guard establishment since 2016, but the leadership has at times remained stubbornly rooted in an outdated ideology.

If Scott or another senator aligned with the “new right” claims the mantle, it may soon be that an America First platform is the rule, rather than the exception, for Senate Republicans.

Aaron Flanigan is the pen name of a writer in Washington, D.C.