Posted on Wednesday, March 26, 2025
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by Shane Harris
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1 Comments
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The last several election cycles have seen a redrawing of the political map, with President Donald Trump breaking the vaunted “blue wall” in the Upper Midwest while Democrats have become more competitive in Sun Belt states like North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona.
Last November, Trump carried all seven swing states on his way to a decisive electoral victory. But beneath the surface, there were bubbling signs of political change in several other noteworthy states as well. Here are the top contenders to become the next swing state in future election cycles.
Minnesota
The Land of 10,000 Lakes, dominated by the Minneapolis-St. Paul metroplex has long been a Democrat stronghold. The state hasn’t voted for a Republican in a presidential race since 1972 and hasn’t elected a GOP governor since 2006.
But in recent cycles, the anchor of Democrats’ blue wall has slowly become more competitive. Trump won 44.9 percent of the vote in Minnesota in 2016, 45.3 percent in 2020, and 46.7 percent last year. Neighboring Michigan and Wisconsin, already key swing states, have shown signs of inching rightward, perhaps indicating a coming shift in Minnesota as well, which has a similar economy and demographic breakdown.
Along with the rest of the Rust Belt, Minnesota has been hit particularly hard by the offshoring of manufacturing jobs and increasingly onerous government regulations on the state’s mining industry. If the Republican Party continues to embrace President Trump’s America First agenda, with its promise to restore the American manufacturing sector and ease the regulatory burden on mining operations, it could further boost GOP chances in the state.
Virginia
In 2021, incumbent Governor Glenn Youngkin became the first Republican to win statewide in Virginia since 2009. Then, last November, the Old Dominion produced one of the biggest surprises of election night when Trump led there well into the evening, ultimately cutting his margin of defeat in half compared to 2020.
Virginia is unique in that changes in DC could have an outsized effect on the state’s political dynamics in the years ahead. The Trump administration is currently downsizing the federal workforce, much of which resides in the heavily Democrat suburbs in the northern part of the state and could seek employment in other states. The administration is also looking at moving some offices out of the capital, which could further dilute Democrats’ advantage.
These factors combined with Virginia’s large rural population, which has only voted more Republican over the past few cycles, could mean that the state becomes one to watch in future contests.
New Jersey
The Garden State was another uncomfortably close win for Democrats last year, with Vice President Kamala Harris carrying the state by five points over President Trump. Just four years ago, Joe Biden won the state by 16 points. In 2020, New Jersey Democrats had a registered voter advantage of more than one million. By this past January, that edge had dwindled to 896,000.
A combination of failed liberal policies and broader demographic shifts may make New Jersey more competitive in the years ahead. 22 percent of the state is Hispanic, a group with which Republicans are making major inroads. New Jerseyans have also been hit hard by inflation and the cost of living crisis under Joe Biden and the Democrat leadership in Trenton, as the state has the highest property taxes in the country and the third-highest overall tax burden nationwide.
Texas
Democrats have long believed that the Lone Star State, with its exploding Hispanic population and emerging tech culture, could be the party’s ticket to electoral riches.
Republican presidential candidates indeed have seen their vote share slowly decline in the state since the 1980s. Reagan won 63.6 percent of the vote in 1980, while John McCain won 55.5 percent in 2008, and Trump won 52 percent in 2016 and 2020.
But in 2024, Trump’s vote share jumped to 56 percent – seeming to suggest that things may be moving in the wrong direction for Democrats.
It may be the case that Democrats are on the verge of finding the right political formula to make Texas competitive outside of campaign rallies in Austin and endless empty promises to donors. But of all the states on this list, Texas seems the least likely to turn purple.
New Mexico
The Land of Enchantment is perhaps the most under-the-radar state that could become a political battleground. Unlike neighboring Arizona, which has gone from solid Republican to perennial swing state, Democrat presidential candidates have easily carried New Mexico since George W. Bush won there by less than one percent in 2004.
But since then, Democrats have seen their vote share decline following a high-water mark of 56.9 percent set by Barack Obama in 2008. After Hillary Clinton won New Mexico by 8.3 percent in 2016 and Biden won by 10.8 percent in 2020, Kamala Harris won by just six points last year, 51.9 percent to 45.9 percent.
With its large and growing Hispanic population and oil and gas interests, Trump’s America First agenda could make the GOP more competitive in New Mexico moving forward.
Every election cycle has a few surprises, and a state not on this list could emerge as an unexpected battleground. But chances are that the next swing state will be one of these five.
Shane Harris is the Editor in Chief of AMAC Newsline. You can follow him on X @shaneharris513.
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