- A majority of French citizens now believe they are witnessing a demographic replacement of the French population by non-European populations, mainly from Africa.
- Record residence permits hit 4.5 million in 2025, with new permits surging by 11 percent.
- 66 percent of French respondents view the demographic change as a negative development.
- Concern crosses political lines, with 64 percent of Socialist voters and 37 percent of Macron’s own base agreeing replacement is occurring.
- Right-wing leaders are demanding stricter immigration controls as public pressure mounts on the government.
Not long ago, talk of a “great replacement” in France was dismissed as fringe alarmism, the stuff of dark corners and internet rabbit holes. Not anymore. A new survey by the respected polling firm IFOP finds that six in ten French citizens have come to believe their country’s population is being supplanted by people of non-European origin, predominantly from Africa. This is no longer a whisper from the political margins; it is a roar from the heart of the French republic.
France’s immigration authority recorded 4.5 million active residence permits in 2025, a figure that has never been higher, climbing around 3 percent on the back of long-duration and permanent-residency cards. New permits alone jumped 11 percent to 384,000, partly driven by a 65 percent rise in humanitarian admissions. Those legally residing in France now account for roughly one in twelve adults in the country.
A majority rules it negatively
The IFOP survey also asked French citizens whether they considered that change good or bad. The answer was resounding: 66 percent of respondents said they view the transformation as a negative development, compared to only 9 percent who see it as a good thing. Another 7 percent remain undecided.
These numbers cut across age groups and political lines. While supporters of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally unsurprisingly expressed the highest level of concern at 81 percent, a notable 64 percent of Socialist Party voters also indicated worry. Even among President Emmanuel Macron’s own base, 37 percent agreed that replacement is occurring. The concern is not confined to the right; it is a national sentiment.
When France issued 4.5 million valid residence permits in 2025, it set a record that dwarfs anything seen in prior decades. One in three permits was issued for family reasons, totaling 1.5 million, while one in five was an automatic renewal. At the same time, deportations hit their highest level in a decade at 24,985, but that number still falls far short of the inflow.
Since 2014, the number of people living in France who were born abroad has grown by over 20 percent, now standing at approximately 9.3 million — close to 14 percent of the overall population. The OECD’s most recent International Migration Outlook puts annual long-term arrivals at just under 300,000 for 2024. High net migration has increasingly offset France’s slowing native birth rate.
Right-wing leaders speak out
Marion Maréchal, leader of Identité Libertés, has not been silent. Two weeks ago, she posted on X: “60% of French people think that we are witnessing ‘a replacement of the French population by non-European populations mainly from Africa’ according to @IfopOpinion. To our greatest misfortune, our rulers are among the 40%.” She blasted French leaders for their continuous stance of “above all, let’s do nothing!”
Jordan Bardella of the National Rally has also sounded the alarm. Bardella has made it clear that he feels the European Union must alter current rules to disallow free movement within Schengen for those holding a resident permit. Maréchal has been even more specific, calling for closing Schengen at the Spanish border, describing it as “a vital act to deter and protect the French and Europeans.”
The matter history brought to this moment
This is not a new anxiety, but one that has simmered for decades. In 1968, roughly three-quarters of migrants in France came from other European countries. Today, about half originate from African nations, according to INSEE. The shift has been profound, and public opinion has now caught up with the data.
The ifop poll represents a political earthquake that Paris cannot ignore. With 60 percent of citizens believing their nation’s demographic character is being replaced, and 66 percent calling it negative, the pressure on elected officials will only intensify. The national conversation has moved past debating the reality of demographic change into questioning why the government has allowed it.
France stands at a crossroads. Either its leaders acknowledge the concerns of a clear majority and adjust policy accordingly, or they continue as Maréchal accuses them of doing nothing. The polling data suggests that doing nothing may no longer be an option. The French people have spoken, and their message is unmistakable.
Sources for this article include:
ZeroHedge.com
GBNews.com
RMX.news
YourNews.com
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